NFL Week 9 Pick: Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 7, 2017 9:43 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 7, 2017 9:43 PM UTC

The marquee matchup of the week could be a Super Bowl preview – if the Cowboys can avoid falling apart until Ezekiel Elliott returns. I think they win this game without him. Survivor Pick: Dallas. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (Pick’em, 51)

OK, I’m writing this story assuming that any Hail Mary pass by Ezekiel Elliott’s legal team – well, the NFLPA’s legal team – doesn’t win some sort of appeal or injunction that stops Elliott from beginning his six-game suspension this week. On Monday, U.S. District Judge Katherine Failla dissolved Elliott's temporary restraining order and denied his motion, putting Elliott's suspension back in effect. That’s obviously a big loss for the Cowboys, who already likely are wild card or bust with how good the division-rival Eagles are. That said, Dallas still has a great offensive line and two quality veteran running backs in Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden. Fantasy nerds everywhere want to know which guy will be the bell cow in Elliott’s place: Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said Morris will be the No. 1 running back but that McFadden and Rod Smith will still get work. The main reason I like the Cowboys here, other than being at home, is that it’s a short week for the Chiefs off Monday’s win over Denver. Since drafting Dak Prescott and Elliott last year, the Cowboys have gone 4-1 against the AFC.

  • Chiefs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
  • Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Free NFL Pick: Cowboys at pick’emBest Line Offered: SportsBetting

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I read a headline this week that said: “Lineup Changes Help Chiefs Improve Pass Defense”. That’s hogwash. Why, because the Chiefs made Trevor Siemian look bad on Monday night? The Chiefs had three interceptions and, for the first time all season, didn’t allow a pass play of more than 30 yards. K.C. replaced starting cornerback Terrance Mitchell with the Kenneth Acker. Steven Nelson played as the nickel back for the first time this season after missing the first seven games because of core muscle surgery. That’s fine, but Siemian is not a good quarterback and, in fact, has been benched for Brock Osweiler. Dallas, meanwhile, is rolling offensively as it has scored at least 33 points in four straight games. Yes, Elliott was a big part of that. He has had more than 100 yards on the ground in each of the past three games. He has four rushing touchdowns in the last three games. But the Cowboys believe in their system and it’s not like this suspension took them off guard. Prescott will have a huge day.

  • Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Over 51Best Line Offered: GT Bets

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