NFL Week 9 Pick: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 7, 2017 9:46 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 7, 2017 9:46 PM UTC

It’s the first meeting of the season between these NFC North rivals, and if you follow the Lions you know they win in Wisconsin about once a generation. Survivor Pick: Green Bay.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+3, 43)

I’m not sure that the Lions are playoff-caliber as they are 3-4 and on a three-game losing streak. But if they can win this game, they might even win their first division title since 1993. I’m saying that because I don’t trust the Vikings with Case Keenum at quarterback. I have no faith in the Packers with Aaron Rodgers probably out the rest of the season with a broken collarbone. And the Lions have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way. They only games vs. teams with a winning record currently are this one and Week 17 vs. the Packers and Thanksgiving vs. Minnesota, a team the Lions already beat. Green Bay comes out of its bye week, which came at a great time as that team was beaten up and needed to recover from Rodgers’ injury. Backup Brett Hundley was terrible in a Week 7 loss to New Orleans, but two weeks of preparation and a full week of practice with the first-teamers can only help. Rodgers even showed up this week both to rehab that collarbone but also to work with Hundley. Detroit has lost 25 of its past 26 at the Packers – the only win came when Rodgers was out. I’m going to buy this up to 3.5 and take Green Bay as I think Hundley must have some talent or the Packers wouldn’t have kept him around. He’ll be prepared. Green Bay swept the regular-season series with the Lions last season for the first time since 2012.

  • Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
  • Packers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
Free NFL Pick: Packers +3 (buy up to 3.5)Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

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Last Sunday’s Lions 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh was practically impossible as Detroit had 482 yards of offense but didn’t score a freaking touchdown. The team’s 16 plays run in the red zone without a TD was the most of any club this year. It’s actually not new watching Matthew Stafford throw for at least 400 yards and no TDs. He has now passed for more than 400 yards eight times in his career and thrown for one or no touchdowns four times. The Lions defense was very impressive against the Steelers. The previous four times the Packers have lost heading into the bye, they have won each game immediately following the bye. Three of the four games took place at home against division opponents (2014 vs. Chicago, 2009 and 2013 vs. Detroit). The Packers have won each of the six previous matchups against NFC teams in the week after the bye. Expect the Pack to run the ball a ton with Hundley and rookie Aaron Jones. That means chewing clock and keeping the score down.

  • Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.
  • Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.
Free NFL Pick: Under 43Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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