NFL Week 9 Pick: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 7, 2017 9:32 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 7, 2017 9:32 PM UTC

It’s the start of a season-defining three-game road trip for the Bengals as they visit a Jaguars team coming off the bye week. Survivor Pick: Jacksonville.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)

The Bengals have won the past four in this series but they haven’t played since 2014. That the Jags are at least 4-point favorites is rare. Since 2009, the Jaguars have only been favored by four or more points a total of seven times, they are 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS in those. But this Jaguars team is much better, especially on defense. Jacksonville is tied for the AFC South lead with Tennessee. Cincinnati was lucky to avoid being upset at home by Indianapolis in Week 8, escaping 24-23. Bengals defensive lineman Carlos Dunlap batted Jacoby Brissett's pass into the air, grabbed the ball and ran 16 yards to the end zone for a game-turning TD with just under seven minutes remaining. Andy Dalton threw for two scores and wasn’t picked off. Cincinnati struggled to run the ball, which has been an issue often this season. The Bengals had just 58 yards on 21 carries. First-round rookie WR John Ross was a nonfactor in his first game back since his injury in Week 2 and played only six offensive snaps against the Colts. I’m presuming that Jags star rookie RB Leonard Fournette plays out of the bye. He missed Week 7 with an ankle injury.

  • Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
  • Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Free NFL Pick: Jaguars -4.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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The Jags and Bengals have two of the six best defenses in the NFL in terms of yards per game. This will also be the Jacksonville debut of former Bills Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. All Jacksonville had to give up was a sixth-round pick to get him. If Dareus is motivated, and he’s not always, then he could make that already excellent defense truly fearsome because he can help against the run. While Jacksonville is No. 1 vs. the pass, the Jaguars are last in the NFL against the run (138.6 yards per game) and no team has allowed more than their 5.2 yards per rush. Dareus is he's one of the league's better run-stuffing tackles. That Cincinnati struggling offensive line could have its hands full. Against a weak Colts defense, the Bengals’ line gave up three sacks and allowed Dalton to be hit six times and hurried eight. One of Dalton’s two touchdown passes came with a Colts defender in his face after being unblocked. Cincinnati ranks third-worst in the NFL with 78.4 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry.

  • Under is 11-3 in Bengals last 14 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Under 39.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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