NFL Week 9 Monday Night Prop Picks - Bills vs. Seahawks

Tyrod Taylor in action

Jordan Sharp

Monday, November 7, 2016 5:51 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 7, 2016 5:51 PM UTC

We dropped the ball on a couple of Sunday prop plays, but we are still only 2-2 on the week and I am ready to make that 4-2 on Monday night. The Seahawks and Bills provide some nice NFL Odds prop betting value and I have two best bets from Bovada sportsbooks to close out the week!


Tyrod Taylor O/U 184 ½ passing yards

Tyrod Taylor’s performance last week against the Patriots was forgettable, but it seemingly lowered his odds offered from Bovada sportsbook, now offering 100% cash bonus, for his yards total tonight of 184 ½. He threw the ball 41 times for only 183 yards in one of his worst performances of the year.

However, it also might have been an outlier on Taylor’s high passing volume games. The Bills are going to want to run the ball a lot this week, but when that fails, they fall behind or both, Taylor is going to be forced to put the ball in the air at least 35 or 40 times.

If that happens again, there is little chance he falls under his already depressed yards total this week.

Sure, he doesn’t have many weapons, but a few dump offs that go for 15 or 20 yards might be all he needs to cash the over here. In games where Taylor has thrown the ball at least 30 times in the last two seasons, he is averaging 254 yards passing per game.

I’m assuming Taylor is going to be playing from behind at some point in this one, so let’s assume he at least gets above 200 yards in this one for our NFL picks.


Free NFL Pick: Over 184 ½ (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bovada


Tyler Lockett O/U 27 ½ receiving yards

With the Seahawks potentially playing with the league and running the ball a lot with Christine Michael, the chances that a ton of Seahawks receivers having big days are slim.

Plus, this is not the Seahawks of the last few years. This team has a ton of weapons in the passing game, so in a game that favors the run more than the pass, someone has to be left out and I think it’s Tyler Lockett.

Ever since Week 1, Lockett’s market share of his offense has gone down. Lockett has been on the field for only 54 percent of the Hawks’ offensive snaps this season and even though he is seeing more lately, it hasn’t translated into receptions.

Lockett did catch all four of his targets against the Saints last week, but against a Bills team that has been tough on opposing wideouts, it’s tough to think that Lockett will have a big game alongside the other Seahawks pass catchers lie, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, and Jermaine Kearse.

The Bills have allowed less than 200 yards to opposing receivers in five straight weeks and six of their eight games this season. Assuming Graham, Baldwin and Kearse take up most of that volume for the Seahawks, there won’t be anything left for Lockett.


Free NFL Pick: Under 27 ½ (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bovada


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