NFL Week 9—Expert Final Thoughts For Sunday Night Football: Broncos vs Raiders

Von Miller Of The Broncos

Sunday, November 6, 2016 8:01 PM GMT

This SNF Edition is must-see TV, the Raiders are actually favorites against the World Champs Broncos. Are the odds makers wrong? Here's our expert final thoughts on this matchup and free NFL Pick.

NFL PICKS SEASON ATS RECORD: 58-36-2

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders, 11/06/16

When the Raiders (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 215 PS-203 PA) are playing good football, the NFL’s a better product and on Sunday Night Football in Week 9, Derek Carr and Oakland welcome the Denver Broncos (6-2 SU/ATS, 194 PS-136 PA) to O.co Coliseum for this AFC West showdown and true test of the Road-savvy (5-0) Raiders, as, no matter where your Home is—or will be—it’s important to win there. Sportsbooks have this line Pick ‘Em (5Dimes) to Oakland as 1-point favorites (-105, BetDSI) with the Total from 43½ (BetOnline) to 44 (BetDSI). On the Money Line, Oakland are -125 chalks at Sportsbetting.ag—an Offshore with a 75% Free Play Sign-up Bonus)—with Denver +105. So, if leaning Denver and shopping lines and PK is the best you have, maybe win the extra 11 cents taking the Broncos M/L at +101.

 Sunday Night Football Trends, Series, Other Trends, Broncos vs. Raiders Pick

The SNF Trends in this AFC West clash reveal Denver 11-8 ATS on Road and 9-5 ATS as Underdog with Oakland 5-2 ATS at Home and 7-7 ATS as Favorite although Point Spreads from Pick to -1 hardly feel like Favorites. The Broncos (#5 NFL Scoring Defense, 17.0 ppg, +5 TO) will approach this matchup from a Defense-first standpoint while Carr (6-12 ATS at Home) and the Raiders (+277 to win AFC West, BetDSI) will try to keep clicking on Offense (#3 in Total Offense, 26.9 ppg).

 

 

The Over is 6-0 in Week 9 Raiders’ games, 12-3 L15 Oakland games following a SU Win and 34-15-3 L51 after ATS win while the Road team is 18-7-1 ATS L26 in this series, the Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS L9 meetings and last season, Denver won 16-10 and covered the 5½-point spread by a hook in this spot.

 

 

Four problems in backing the Raiders (45/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes): Their penchant for Penalties—Oakland (+7 TO, #4 NFL) set an NFL Record last week committing 23 Penalties for 200 yards in an OT win at Tampa Bay—the glaring 2.2 Yards Per Play (ypp) difference on Defense between the Broncos (4.8 ypp) and Raiders (6.6 ypp), the reality playing in Oakland doesn’t really seem like an advantage for the Silver and Black (0-3 ATS at Home) and Denver’s 5-0 ATS mark L5 at O.co. So even though Carr and Oakland feel like they are in a groove and the Broncos (+1530 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) are breaking in new QBs (Siemian, Lynch), it all comes down to which is more important, having the better QB or having the better Defense.

 

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Broncos 27 Raiders 22Free NFL Pick: Broncos +1Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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