NFL Week 9 Betting: Largest Totals & Picks

Matthew Jordan

Friday, October 31, 2014 4:48 PM GMT

After a solid Week 8 of NFL betting on the largest spread picks (mine finished 2-1 for the 2nd straight week), in a very high-scoring season (2 teams reached 51 points) I share my picks for Week 9.

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (53.5 at sportsbooks)
Not sure if you heard, but Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are playing in this game. I'm moderately surprised the total is this low. It's the 16th all-time meeting  between the two greatest players of this generation and quite possibly the two best regular-season quarterbacks in NFL history. Manning will own every record by the time he retires. This is the first game ever between quarterbacks with at least 150 regular-season wins. Brady leads 10-5, including 8-3 in the regular season. Last season New England won 34-31 in overtime in the regular-season matchup, rallying from a 24-0 deficit. The Broncos won 26-16 in the AFC title game but playoff games are almost always lower scoring. Denver is averaging 37.3 points during a four-game winning streak in which Manning has 14 touchdown passes. New England is averaging 39.3 points during a four-game winning streak in which Brady has 14 touchdown passes. He had one of the best games of his career last week, going 30 of 35 for 354 yards and five touchdowns as the Pats put up 51 points in a rout of the Bears. Yes, as many TD passes as incompletions. The weather does look a bit shaky, with a high of 44 and low of 29, 60 percent chance of rain and winds up to 22 mph.  That likely drove the total down a few points.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over' on NFL odds. Defenses can be hampered by lousy weather too. The 'over' is 7-2 in Denver's past nine road games against teams with a winning home record and 4-0 in New England's past four at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants (51 on NFL odds)
This is the Monday night game. The Colts lead the NFL in total and passing offense behind MVP candidate Andrew Luck and are No. 2 in scoring. Andrew Luck threw for 400 yards in last week's loss to  Pittsburgh that ended Indy's five-game winning streak. It was his sixth straight game with at least 300 yards, which is three shy of Drew Brees' NFL record. The Colts have scored less than 24 points just once. It's not clear if Luck will have receiver Reggie Wayne after he missed the Steelers game with an injury. So did running back Trent Richardson, but he will play Monday. Interestingly, the Giants will be the first of three straight teams coming off a bye that Indy will face. Which New York/Eli Manning will we see? The Giants offense that averaged 35.0 points during a three-game winning streak from Weeks 3-5 or the one that has been held to 14 or less in three games? Your guess is as good as mine, but with top Giants running back Rashad Jennings out again, Manning probably has to have a huge game to outduel Luck. Before placing your NFL pick keep in mind that there is zero chance of rain Monday with temperatures likely in the low 40s by kickoff.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over.' Neither defense is very trustworthy and both QBs are capable of a four-TD (and four interception) game. The 'over' is 5-0 at sportsbooks in Indy's past five on the road.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans (48.5 at 5Dimes)
The Eagles rank No. 4 in scoring at 29.0 points per game, but they have been held to 21 or less in two of their three road games, including last week in a loss at Arizona. Nick Foles threw for 411 yards in that one, but the guy who had just two picks all last season has thrown at least one in every game but one and two in three games. He's not even completing 60 percent of his passes. The good news for Philly is that running back Darren Sproles is expected to play after sitting out the Cardinals game. He's invaluable as a return man and receiver out of the backfield. Houston's defense has had problems with QBs such as Eli Manning, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger but dominated guys like Robert Griffin III, Derek Carr, E.J. Manuel and Zach Mettenberger. Which group would you put Foles in? Yeah, I'm not sure, either.

Free NFL Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in four of Houston's past five vs. teams with a winning record. 

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