NFL Week 9 betting - Identifying Early Sharp Action

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 1, 2016 8:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 8:00 PM UTC

There has been much early week point spread movement on three AFC West teams—the Chiefs, Chargers and defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. Let’s look at these three games, see if there is any value left backing, or possibly fading these teams, and make an NFL pick.

NFL Overall Picks Record: 57-35-2Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Line Open: Chiefs -8, Sunday
Current Line: Chiefs -10 +110 (5Dimes)

This AFC NFL week 9 affair from Arrowhead Stadium is already in double digits at offshore sportsbook 5Dimes, often a harbinger of latter-week movement. And that’s definitely Sharp money fading the Jaguars and Blake Bortles who has just 2 career Road Wins and who leads the NFL with 52 Giveaways since 2012. 

The problems here with backing the Chiefs though is some perceived value has dissolved and there is a question mark at QB with Alex Smith—who the Chiefs said Monday did not suffer a Concussion in Week 8’s 30-14 win in Indianapolis (KC -3, BookMaker)—although Smith is going to see an independent neurologist this week. The Chiefs have played 3 straight Unders and 5 of the L6 KC games have gone Under while Jacksonville—which fired OC Greg Olson—is a pathetic 2-17 SU its L19 on the Road.

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Tennessee Titans vs San Diego Chargers 

Line Open: Chargers -4, Sunday
Current Line: Chargers -5½ (Intertops)

The Sharps really seem to like the Chargers this season, as early money flow has shown, including this affair from Qualcomm Stadium which will see Marcus Mariota and the Titans travel 3 Times Zones west from ET to PT. The AFC South (4-9 SU on Road) has been disappointing so far, and Tennessee (3-5 ATS) still has the NFL’s worst ATS Record since 2014 (10-28-2 ATS, 26.3%). The San Diego (5-3 ATS) money seems smart and series Trends strongly back the Bolts as the Titans are 0-8-1 ATS the L9 and 0-5 ATS the L5 at Qualcomm. 

 Free NFL Pick: Chargers -5 -115 Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders 

Line Open: Raiders -2½, Sunday
Current Line: Pick ‘Em (5Dimes)

Live from the Oakland Coliseum on Sunday Night Football, the Broncos (6-2 SU) take on Derek Carr and the Raiders (6-2 SU) in a battle of AFC West leaders. Seeing that momentary blip at the send-out line of Raiders -2½ Sunday night, it’s obvious this immediate move was strong Sharp money. And whether these astute bettors think the number was off or were just waiting to fade the Raiders (5-0 Road, 1-2 Home) at Home—or maybe a little of both—who knows. Denver has been incredibly strong against AFC West counterparts the L4+ seasons (22-4, so the Raiders will have their work cut out for them. 


Free NFL Pick: Broncos +1 -115 Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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