NFL Week 8 Predictions - New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Odds & Free Picks

New England Patriots player Tom Brady

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 10:20 PM GMT

The AFC East showdown between the Patriots and Bills practically leaps off the odds board as a must bet. But which side of the coin should bettors bet? Here’s how we line up in week 8 NFL picks.

 

New England Patriots (6-1 SU, 3-0 away)

Everybody agrees. The Patriots are the best team in the NFL right now. They top the Power Rankings with every reputable sports media outlet and amongst NFL analysts. Hard to argue on that score, really. The 6-1 SU record speaks loud and clear, and to the chagrin of naysayers, they accomplished half of it without Tom Brady in the line-up.

From week 1-4, the Patriots resorted to not one but two backup quarterbacks: Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brisset. The former lifted the Patriots to victory over the Cardinals despite closing as the +9 underdogs. He then went on to lift the Patriots (-5.5) to a substantial lead over the Dolphins before succumbing to injury and making way for Jacoby Brissett. The third-string quarterback didn’t disappoint as the Patriots won 31-24 and covered. In week 3, Brissett enjoyed his first NFL start and carried the Patriots (PK) to a shocking 27-0 evisceration of the Houston Texans. It wasn’t even close. The fairy tale did come to a crashing halt in a 16-0 loss to the Bills at Gillette Stadium, a result that had the hoody-clad Belichick rather irate.

In any event, week 5 saw the return of Tom Brady and the Patriots haven’t looked back since. Wins over the Browns (-10), Bengals (-7.5) and Steelers (-7.5) lifted the Patriots to a 6-1 SU and ATS record, highlighted by a 9.9 winning margin and +6.3 differential versus the spread. That’s a league best, mind.

 

Buffalo Bills (4-3 SU, 2-1 home)

A four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in Miami behind a 28-25 loss. The game itself and how it went down belies the narrow score. The reality is the Bills (-3) had the significant lead going into the third quarter only to frit it away and allow the Dolphins back into the game and, eventually, win it. The Bills managed to score a late touchdown to draw within 3 points, but it was all too little too late. They let one get away from them, a divisional game to boot.

Going into week 8, Rex Ryan and the Bills will be keen to bounce back. A date with New England is hardly the ideal tonic. Sure, they defeated the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in week 4, but they didn’t have the arduous task of facing Tom Brady, who’s been simply stellar since his reinstatement in week 5. This is going to be an entirely different ball game, made all the more difficult by the Patriots et al still seething from the humiliation and a stellar track record of success in avoiding a series sweep to divisional rivals since forever.

 

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

No love is lost between these two teams, which sets up an intriguing clash on the NFL betting floor. At first glance, given the rivalry, the current spread of -6.5 to -7 (depending on the top-rated sportsbook of choice) seems a touch high. Buffalo only proved a few weeks ago they do have the measure of the Patriots and Rex Ryan did outcoach Bill Belichick, no question about it.

However, with the Patriots smashing spreads each and every week, especially since Tom Brady’s return, bookmakers are forced to go high on the Patriots. This could be a trap. Historical trends against the spread reveal the Patriots are modest against the spread where divisional games are concerned. In all likelihood, it’s a direct consequence of overcooked spreads and the public repeatedly betting up the Patriots.

For instance, since the 2014 season – in which New England won the Super Bowl – the Patriots are 5-7-2 against divisional opponents with a 3.6 winning margin and a -1.9 differential versus the spread. Post deflate-gate Brady and the Patriots are 3-3-2 ATS with a 3.2 winning margin and a -1.9 differential versus the spread.

By those stats, it might be remiss to dismiss the Bills entirely. Yet, Belichick and the Patriots will surely want revenge for the horrendous week 4 loss. Being outcoached doesn’t sit well with Belichick and methinks he’s sure to come out with a game plan to stick it to Rex Ryan and the Bills. Give them a taste of their own medicine, if you will. He won’t be so uncouth to gloat about it in his post-game interview though as Rex did. Lay the points with the Patriots on your week 8 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Picks: Patriots -6.5 -110

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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