It’s that time once again, as we head into the ceremonial half way point of the NFL season, it’s time for me to release my prop betting picks from bet365 sportsbook.
Matt Forte O/U 82.5 rushing yards
The Bears are playing host to the Vikings this week, and what some would call a winnable game. However, that person is not me, because I think as long as Adrian Peterson plays, (he was listed as probably on Friday) the Vikings should still be ahead most of the game. If that’s the case, I can’t see Matt Forte getting that many touches in the backfield. I expect him to be very involved in the passing game, but at 82.5, the number is a little too high. The Vikings are 13th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs, and even on the road I expect this divisional game to be tough for the Bears offense. Forte should have over 100 all-purpose yards this week, but for the rushing yards I put him only around 65-70 this week.
NFL Pick: UNDER 82.5 rush yards (-120)
Matt Ryan O/U 274.5 passing yards
Although the Falcons aren’t throwing the ball as much this season, the Falcons are playing the Bucs at home this week. Tampa on the season is the 24th ranked pass defense in the NFL, and at least recently, Ryan has played well at home against the Bucs. He has thrown for about 280 yards per game over his last two home games against Tampa, and with the Bucs’ defense probably at one of it’s weakest points over the last three seasons, this is an over for me this week. Ryan is averaging right at 270 passing yards per game in just three home games during their first seven games. Tampa has given up an average of 328 passing yards per game this season, and are dead last in points allowed at nearly 30 per game. Take the over with Ryan in this one, the number is still solid and the Falcons offense will rebound this week after two sloppy road games.
NFL Pick: OVER 274.5 pass yards (-130)
Odell Beckham Jr. O/U 85.5 receiving yards
I will preface this by saying that I know it’s hard to trust the Giants offense on the road, and Odell Beckham is included in that. However, on the turf in the Super Dome this week, the Giants should and probably will force-feed Beckham to try and win the game. His targets have been down over the last two weeks, but I fully expect him to be back to the double-digit target range that he was to start the season. While I doubt the Giants will unleash him for 18 targets a game like they did towards the end of last season, but anything in possible in a game against this Saints defense. New Orleans has given up the 10th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season, and with little help elsewhere at the receiving slot outside of an average Rueben Randle, I expect Beckham to easily get over the 85-yard mark this week.
NFL Pick: OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-125)