We’ve made it to November in 2020 for the NFL, that’s a good thing. What can also be a good thing is finding value in making football bets and we have a three-pack lined up for you.
We press on to Week 8 of the professional football season. As we have all season, we have tried to identify games that offer the most value to the sports bettors. That can mean a variety of things to different people, but the bottom line (as guys like to say) is to create the most value for NFL picks.
How do you do that? By understanding the key numbers in the sport along with the right situation(s). Put those two elements together and you enhance your chances of winning dramatically.
The best value shoppers are always on the alert, from when the NFL odds are first released until kickoff. Since we are publishing this article a couple of days before kickoff, the numbers could change and we’ll tell you what else to look for when reading this, which could give you an edge.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
The value is two-fold in this NFC North battle. It starts with how Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense has played well in all but one contest. Rodgers is having one of his best seasons in his storied career and it has a lot to do with coach Matt LaFleur’s balanced attack and commitment to the run. This keeps the opposing defense guessing, and with Rodgers’ experience and wisdom, he can control the game.
Minnesota is 1-5 (3-3 ATS) and is coming in off a bye week and they have scuffled all season. The defensive roster had turnover in the offseason, and the replacements are trying to find their way and are allowing 32 points a contest. Offensively, Kurt Cousins has 10 interceptions and the Vikings offense has two or more turnovers in four of their six outings. That combination does not bode well for the Vikes at the frozen tundra.
The situation favors the Pack and all week they have bounced back and forth between -6 and -7. Obviously, for a value bet, we want the lower number. Thus, if you like the Packers also, you know what to look for.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, Nov 1st, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
The actual early line on this game was the Rams at -6 before they knocked off Chicago Monday night. The official line you see today is -3.5 on one of the teams from Los Angeles that is striving to make it three championships in about four months for the City of Angels.
The Rams will arrive in South Florida with several negatives; playing on a short week, a cross-country sojourn, an early start time, and playing a nonconference opponent.
We thought the starting spread was a smidge high at six, but we can see the value in L.A. on two fronts.
It starts with the Rams being a solid club that is significantly better on offense and defense this season. Focus should not be an issue for Sean McVay’s squad. Despite having a nasty looking schedule ahead this month, that won’t begin until after a bye week.
What also appears in our favor is Miami making the switch to rookie Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. The Dolphins are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. While we have no reason to think Tagovailoa won’t be a fine quarterback, the Rams have held five of seven teams to 19 or fewer points.
Finally, once again we will be patient and see if the L.A. slips to -3, knowing they are 10-4 ATS in non-home regular-season games since 2018.
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 1st, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at Soldier Field
My goodness, did the Bears look pathetic against the Rams on Monday. The defense was not physical, they had no running game and Nick Foles made himself a hot topic on Chicago sports talk radio. Maybe we will be as wrong again picking Da Bears here like last week, but we’re going down that same rabbit hole again.
Bovada sent the former Monsters of the Midway out +3 and that has jumped to +5 versus Drew Brees and the Saints. There seems little doubt Chicago is not a 5-2 team, nonetheless, they were embarrassed, and being back home should bring out the best in the Bears from a pride perspective.
Also, 378 days ago (or what seems like five years ago on Covid time), New Orleans manhandled Matt Nagy’s team 36-25 at Soldier Field giving up only 17 yards rushing. If those two events don’t bring out the best in the Bears, not sure what will!