The NFL season is flying by, and the regular season will be over before you know it. That means you have to find value in the NFL Odds wherever you can. Thursday night is a good time to shake up your NFL Picks, and I have three prop plays that should help you do that.
Brandon Lafell O/U 61.5 Receiving Yards
Brandon Lafell has been an underrated and crucial signing for the Patriots this season. With Rob Gronkowski slow to start the season, and with the injury to Aaron Dobson earlier in the year, this Patriots receiving core has been hit hard early in 2014. However Lafell came over from the Panthers and has given Tom Brady another threat both in the slot and split out wide. Tonight Bet365 has Lafell’s receiving yards total set at 61 yards, and although he has surpassed that in two of his last four games, those were a bit fluky.
In Weeks 4 and 6, Lafell went for 119 and 97 yards respectfully, and I’m sure he cashed the over on whatever his yards totals were those weeks. However one big catch in each game was the sole reason for Lafell’s yardage. In Week 4 he caught a 44-yard touchdown from Brady in a blow out, and last week he caught a 56-yard bomb from Brady, which accounted for over half of his yards.
While the Jets’ secondary is nothing to get excited about, I doubt it helps Lafell. Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will get a lot of love too, and as long as he doesn’t catch another big 40+ yard pass, I think the under is the play on a short week.
NFL Pick: UNDER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Team to Win Both Halves
The NFL Odds for this one have the Patriots as -9 ½ favorites at home. Their offense is finally clicking, their defense is playing better, and most of the concerns we were having with the Patriots a few weeks ago are long gone. However for some reason, Bet365 has the Patriots taking +110 to win both halves tonight, and I don’t know if it’s a mirage, or if the book wants to give away some money tonight. Even though the Jets’ defense is formidable, and they play the Patriots well sometimes, I just can’t see it on a short week.
Even though the Patriots and Jets have played within a three-point margin over their last three games against one another, the Patriots won both halves in two of those games. The only reason they didn’t win all three, the only reason was their collapse on defense in the second half of the most recent game in New York. This game is far from the confines of the Meadowlands.
I could easily see Geno Smith laying another egg here. His confidence is shot, and the tone of New York has been nothing but hostile since day one. These are two teams going in opposite directions, and unfortunately after last week’s very entertaining Thursday Night Football game, this week’s NFL Picks need to go on the Patriots to win both halves tonight. It’s an incredible NFL Odds value, and with the Jets secondary giving up over 500 passing yards in their last two games, (634 passing yards given up in their only two road games this season) take Timmy and his band at home.
NFL Pick: Patriots win both halves (+110)