NFL Week 7 Predictions - Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Bills players celebrating

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 19, 2016 9:09 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016 9:09 PM UTC

They've won four straight games SU and ATS, but the Buffalo Bills could still be the right football pick when they visit the Miami Dolphins this Sunday afternoon.


Record: 12-7-1 ATS, 4-7 Totals

So how about those Buffalo Bills? Yeah, things looked pretty hairy after the first two weeks, but the Bills have won four straight to improve to 4-2 SU and ATS. They beat the Arizona Cardinals. They beat the New England Patriots. What's not to love?

Well... maybe a few things. The Cards have had their issues this year, and the Pats didn't have Tom Brady under center when they faced Buffalo. But make no mistake: The Bills have played very, very well since firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman and replacing him with Anthony Lynn. And at press time, they're still available as 2.5-point road faves on the NFL odds board for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m ET, CBS) against the dubious Miami Dolphins.

Billious Invective

Not everyone is impressed. Our expanded consensus report has 70 percent of early bettors on Buffalo's side, but they're only supplying 53 percent of the monies wagered, for an average bet of $27.42. The Dolphins (2-4 SU and ATS) are pulling in $56.83 a pop. Not a strong vote of confidence for either of these AFC East rivals.

We're still more than willing to recommend a small wager on the Bills for your Week 7 NFL picks. FiveThirtyEight project Buffalo at –4 using their Elo ratings, which don't fully take into account the past four games with Lynn calling the shots. According to the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football-Reference, Buffalo has been the top team in the AFC thus far at plus-9.6 SRS, well ahead of the Fins at minus-1.8 SRS. Give Miami 2.5 points for home-field advantage, and you get a kayfabe point spread of around Buffalo –9 using SRS as a guide.

The clash of styles definitely favors the Bills. Lynn was Buffalo's running backs coach, and a former RB himself; since his promotion, the Bills have been running opponents into the ground, including 7.4 yards per carry from QB Tyrod Taylor and another 6.4 yards from RB LeSean McCoy. The Dolphins, meanwhile, had the league's No. 18-ranked rush defense heading into Week 6, as per the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders. Miami's offensive line is a mess, too. Let's collect those Bills before they reach –3, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Bills –2.5 (–120)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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