As we mentioned last week, value in football selections is a subjective choice and can be viewed in several different ways. Here is one person’s take on what are the best value plays in the NFL this week.
Grab three people in a sportsbook, you name the city, sit them down, and ask this question. How do you determine the best value when making a selection against the NFL odds? If this trio of bettors has experience and has an above-average knowledge of betting sports, you will get a coherent answer. (Spoiler alert: Most bettors have no idea what ‘value’ means for wagering. In truth, it’s not their fault, other than the fact they have chosen not to learn.)
The beauty of asking such a question is most likely you will receive three distinctly different answers and chances are none are completely wrong and will have valid points. Like nearly all things in life, there are few absolutes. That’s why finding and understanding value is not going to overcome your pick when the quart+
3erback of your team has four interceptions. However, uncovering value gives you a better chance to win.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, Oct. 25, 1:00 pm ET (FOX) – at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
At Heritage, New Orleans is a 7.5-point home favorite over Carolina coming off the bye week. Since beating Tampa Bay in their opener, the Saints are 2-2 and 1-3 ATS and are not too far from having a losing record, save by the “elderly” Drew Brees against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Carolina saw their dumbfounding three-game winning streak snapped (all covers) by a stingy Chicago defense last week.
This NFC South rivalry is like others in this division that doesn’t make much sense, with New Orleans only 13-13 at home against Carolina with a 9-16-1 ATS record.
If this was the Saints defense of the past several years, we could make a case to back this Cajun crew. Granted, they rank 7th in yards allowed but are dead last in the NFL in yards per point allowed.
This Brees bunch is only 2-6 ATS at home recently and a closer inspection of this head-to-head confrontation finds the Panthers 15-5 ATS at the Superdome, proving how comfortable they are there and we are catching the half-point hook to boot for even greater value.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, Oct. 25, 8:20 pm ET (NBC) – at State Farm Stadium
The NFC West is loaded and now here comes Arizona at 4-2 making their presence felt. The Cardinals are back home after a highly successful three-game road excursion in which they were 2-1 SU and ATS. Though the competition wasn’t the most challenging, this is Arizona we are talking about, not listed as one of the bedrocks of the NFL.
Offensively, Cards are at 27.7 points a game and while Seattle leads the league at 33.8 PPG, it’s not like Kliff Kingsbury klub (that was intentional) is inferior to Russell Wilson’s outfit thanks to Kyler Murray and a whole host of weapons.
What makes this matchup riveting is Arizona is 2nd in fewest points allowed and the Seahawks are down at 19th. Pete Carroll is leaning on Wilson to save the day as the defense lacks in ability, except for at a few positions. Though Wilson remains elusive at quarterback, Murray is taking that to a new level and still has a big arm.
The Redbirds are 3.5-point home dogs and one has to respective Carroll’s team is 11-2 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. At the same time, Murray and his teammates are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards an attempt. Do we have an Arizona ambush coming?
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, Oct. 26, 8:15 pm ET (ESPN) – SoFi Stadium
In spite of a 5-1 record, nobody is talking about the Chicago Bears. Perception is often tied to reality, rightly or wrongly. The Bears had low expectations coming into the season, mostly due to Mitchell Trubisky. When he went south as expected, Nick Foles took over and while he’s not reminding anyone of Patrick Mahomes, Foles is starting to do what he did when he got his chance in Philadelphia, “he just wins”.
The Chicago defense is not as dominant as the one that propelled their team to a 12-4 season in 2018, yet they are in the Top 8 in yards given up and points allowed and 5th in yards per point. These Bears are not flashy, just effective.
The Los Angeles Rams have much the same profile as Chicago, being a juggernaut two years ago, exposed last season, and not given much thought for 2020. Sean McVay’s squad is much improved and certainly more physical, which is why they are 4-2.
Yet, the Rams are only 1-3 ATS in their last four and more jittery if the opposing team stops the run which Chicago is capable of accomplishing. The odds have the Rams at -6 and for NFL picks we think that spells value and L.A. has wilted under the Monday night lights at 2-7-1 ATS of late.