NFL Week 7 Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 11:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 5, 2017 11:10 PM UTC

The Buffalo Bills are unbeaten at home this year and come off their bye week to host a Tampa Bay team on a two-game skid and last in the NFC South. Survivor Pick: Buffalo.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3, TBA)

Bit of a break here for the warm-weather Bucs as they are playing in Buffalo in mid-October instead of, say, mid-December. Probably a bit of a weather difference. The big story here, and one that certainly would affect my pick (plus the line and total) is the stats of Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston. He left the Week 6 loss in Arizona with what has been diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder. Winston isn’t expected to throw much if at all in practice this week. Doctors have apparently told Coach Dirk Koetter that Winston should be medically cleared, but that pain tolerance and ability to put enough zip on his passes will be the biggest factors. If Winston can’t go, it will be former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. He nearly led a mega-comeback last week vs. the Cardinals in throwing for 290 yards and three touchdowns but was picked off twice. Fitzpatrick might be one of the better backups in the NFL but he’s not in the same stratosphere as Winston. I’m going to assume that Winston does player here as he has yet to miss a game in his career, but I also don’t think he’ll be 100 percent and that’s the deciding factor even though Tampa has more talent than Buffalo. I’ll be buying this down to 2.5, though.

  • Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 7.
Free NFL Pick: Bills -3Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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First-year coach Sean McDermott has worked wonders with the Bills. They still aren’t much to watch offensively and might have the worst group of receivers in the NFL after trading Sammy Watkins in August. But the Bills have been very good defensively, and that’s McDermott’s side of the ball as he was formerly Carolina’s defensive coordinator. Buffalo ranks No. 6 in total defense, No. 1 in scoring (14.8 ppg) and No. 7 against the run. Meanwhile, the Bills’ best receiver thus far has been tight end Charles Clay, and he’s out following knee surgery. With Clay out, that leaves backup tight end Nick O'Leary as the Bills' pass catcher with the most experience with quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who also joined the team in 2015. With that good Buffalo D and Winston hurting, this could easily be the lowest-scoring game of the week.

  • Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

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