NFL Week 7 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 11:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 5, 2017 11:15 PM UTC

The Indianapolis Colts are 22-10 all-time against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but many of those Colts teams had Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. This one won’t. Survivor Pick: Jacksonville.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 44)

Last year, these teams split. In Week 4 in London, the Jaguars won 30-27 as Blake Bortles had a rare good game with 302 yards, two scores, no picks and a rushing touchdown. Andrew Luck led the Colts on three fourth-quarter touchdown drives to make things interesting. That win probably saved Jags coach Gus Bradley for the time being as his team would have been 0-4 with a loss (and it would have been a bad loss); it ended up not mattering as Jacksonville fired Bradley later in the season. In Week 17 in Indianapolis, the Colts won 24-20. Luck threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jack Doyle with 9 seconds left. Indy went 75 yards in 84 seconds with no timeouts.  There are two reasons I like the Jaguars here. Well, three. First, they have played much, much better away from Jacksonville in 2017. Second, the Colts are on a short week after losing at Tennessee on Monday. Third, Luck is expected to remain out as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. If Luck somehow is cleared, I’m changing my mind on this one. Indy’s only two victories are against winless teams.

  • Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Free NFL Pick: Jaguars -3Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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Indy backup QB Jacoby Brissett will have his work cut out for him as Jacksonville ranks No. 3 in the NFL against the pass in allowing just 166.0 yards per game. Quarterbacks have a rating of 60.0 vs. the Jags, which is the lowest in the NFL. Jacksonville, meanwhile, can’t pass the ball a lick behind Bortles as it throws for only 170 yards per game and Bortles is completing just 56.4 percent. So this total will come down to how well the Jags run behind rookie stud Leonard Fournette and how well Indy stops it. Fournette sprained his ankle – injuries were a problem at LSU – in last Sunday’s 27-17 home loss to the Rams. Fournette ran for 130 yards in the game, including a 75-yard touchdown on the Jaguars’ first offensive snap. He says he’s fine. I won’t be taking the Jags on the spread if he were to sit out. Expect the Jags to pull away late as the Colts have been outscored 88-25 in the fourth quarter and overtime this season. That’s not good coaching and why Chuck Pagano probably isn’t back in 2018.

  • Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Indianapolis.
  • Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
Free NFL Pick: Under 44Best Line Offered: Heritage

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