NFL Week 7 Pick: Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 11:28 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 5, 2017 11:28 PM UTC

It’s arguably the most anticipated game of the 2017 regular season on Sunday night in Week 7 as the Falcons look for Super Bowl payback at the Patriots. Survivor Pick: New England.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3, 55)

I still can’t believe the Falcons blew that 28-3 third-quarter lead last Feb. 6 at NRG Stadium in Houston. There was some questionable play-calling late in the game by then-Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, now the 49ers’ head coach. Of course, the Patriots won 34-28 in the first-ever Super Bowl overtime game – it’s such a shame the Falcons never even got a possession in the OT. Tom Brady struggled early but finished 43-for-62 for 466 yards and two scores in winning his record fourth Super Bowl MVP and fifth ring. It’s the second straight year we get a Super Bowl rematch, which is rare. In Week 1 of last year, Denver beat visiting Carolina about seven months after upsetting the Panthers in Super Bowl 50. Has this lost some luster with the Falcons on a two-game losing streak and the Patriots already having matched their 2016 loss total with two? It’s a homecoming for Falcons QB and reigning NFL MVP Matt Ryan, who starred at Boston College. The Patriots are just 1-2 at home this year and haven’t covered in any of those. I find it hard to believe that continues. Brady also has never lost to the Falcons in his career and has put up huge numbers against them. In the previous seven Super Bowl rematches, the Super Bowl victor has hosted the regular season meeting five times, winning four.

  • Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
  • Patriots are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots -3Best Line Offered: Bet365

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Highest total of the week as one would expect. The Patriots are rolling right along offensively as Brady leads the NFL with 1,959 passing yards and ranks second with a 106.9 passer rating. However, after leading the league in scoring defense last year, the Pats are dead last in total yards and passing yards allowed while surrendering 26.5 points per game. How is this possible? New England also has set an NFL record by allowing a 300-yard passer in six straight games. Drew Brees and Jameis Winston and Cam Newton, you probably understand. But Alex Smith? Rookie Deshaun Watson? Josh McCown!?!? Perhaps that defense is just what the Falcons need as all of their offensive stats are down this year after that unit was Top 10 in NFL history in 2016. Clearly, the team misses Shanahan because all the key pieces are back player-wise. Tell me again why Coach Dan Quinn hired Steve Sarkisian for this job? Ryan has already thrown six interceptions, one shy of his 2016 regular-season total.

  • Over is 8-1 in Falcons last nine vs. teams with a winning record.
  • Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Over 55Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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