NFL Week 7: Monday Night Prop Stop

NFL Week 7: Monday Night Prop Stop
Cairo Santos - Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams

Monday, October 26th 2020 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium

What to Expect

For Monday night’s matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams, I think that the NFL odds will be close to the final game result. The Rams are favored by six points and the point total is set at 45.5 points. Both teams have surprisingly strong defenses, but disappointing offenses.

I think that the Rams should be favored because they have played a tougher schedule than the Bears. Of the Bears' wins, only one out of five of those wins was against a team with a winning record. With the Rams being correctly priced, the best way to bet against the Bears will be with proposition bets.

Regardless of who wins Monday night’s game, I believe that few touchdowns will be scored. While both teams will not face much trouble pushing the ball down the field, when they reach the red zone, they will be limited to mainly field goals. That is why for my NFL best bets for Monday night, I am betting that under 4.5 touchdowns will be scored at +130 odds and that the Bears will have over 1.5 field goals at +105 odds.

Touchdown Prediction

The biggest reason why under 4.5 touchdowns will be scored between both the Bears and Rams is because of both teams red zone offenses. The Rams rank 22nd in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage as they only score touchdowns 60.9% of the time. The Bears fare much worse in red zone touchdown percentage than the Rams because they rank 26th in the NFL with a red zone touchdown percentage of only 52.6% of the time.

Teams in the NFL are limited by the opportunities they have for scoring touchdowns, and if they can’t convert in the red zone, then they usually have a hard time scoring.

In addition to both teams having a hard time scoring touchdowns in the red zone, both teams are great at stopping other teams from scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Bears allow the 2nd fewest red zone touchdowns in the league with an average of 1.3 red zone touchdowns given up per game. The Rams are close to the league average as they give up 2 red zone touchdowns per game.

Between both teams, for over five touchdowns to be scored it is likely that there must be at least two touchdowns of at least 20 yards. That is why one of the best NFL picks you could make this week is for under 4.5 touchdowns to be scored in the matchup between the Bears and the Rams.

NFL Pick: Under 4.5 Touchdowns at +130 with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Under 4.5 TDs+130
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Field Goal Prediction

If my prediction is right in that both teams have a hard time scoring touchdowns in the red zone, the alternative will be one team scoring field goals instead of touchdowns. Both the Rams and the Bears have field goal totals set at 1.5 field goals. However, a bet on the Rams field goal 'over' pays less money at -110 than a bet on the Bears field goal over at +105.

While I am tempted to take the over on the combined field goals, I am a little less comfortable betting on over 3.5 field goals to be scored than for over 1.5 field goals for either team. I think that the Bears will have more trouble scoring touchdowns in the red zone and that is why I am betting on them scoring over 1.5 field goals at +105 odds.

One reason why the Bears score so few red zone touchdowns is because of their rushing offense. Most red zone touchdowns that are scored are rushing touchdowns because it is easier to defend the pass with a shorter field. The Bears score only 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game which is tied for last in the NFL with the New York Jets. I do not think the Bears red zone scoring troubles are a fluke and that is why I think that the Bears will score at least two touchdowns in Monday night’s game.

NFL Pick: Chicago Bears Over 1.5 Field Goals at +105 with Bovada

Bears Over 1.5 FGs+105
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