NFL Week 7 MNF Prop Picks - Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos

Broncos player CJ Anderson in action

Monday, October 24, 2016 6:44 PM GMT

We nailed three of our four NFL props on Sunday, including both on the Sunday night game and now I’m back to finish off the slate with two more winners!

 

Season NFL Props Record: 47-35-2

Trevor Siemian O/U 220.5 passing yards

It took Trevor Siemian 50 pass attempts to get to 230 yards last week in the Broncos’ first loss of the season, and now he is up against a tough Texans secondary this week. While Houston has been good on defense through the air, they haven’t been as great in defending the run. Going into Week 7, the Texans had given up the 6th most rushing yards of any team and that may be where the Broncos’ strategy lies tonight on offense.

Coming off his worst game of the season, the Broncos are likely going to limit Siemian to a game manager. Over the first three games of the season he averaged just over 30 pass attempts per game and the Broncos ran the ball a lot. Now coming into a game against one of the worst run defenses in the league, I see Siemian falling just under in this one.

Even the game script agrees with me. The Broncos are big favorites and I have little trust in the Texans’ offense getting a lead in this game. Look for the game to be more ground and pound from both sides for your NFL week 7 picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 225.5 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

CJ Anderson O/U 54.5 rushing yards

Speaking of the Broncos running the ball, CJ Anderson has been awful over his last two games and pretty much all season. However, the Broncos have looked pretty bad over the last two weeks as a whole and while we have missed on Anderson’s props before, I think his number has hit rock bottom this week against an overvalued defenses and I like his chances for the over.

The game flow should improve for him as well and the Broncos likely won’t fall behind so far that they abandon the run game. Anderson had only 11 carries last week and 10 last week, but if the Broncos commit to the run and give him 20 carries, there is little that will stop him from going over this and hitting 55 rush yards or more.

The main reason is the Texans’ defense. As mentioned above, they have not been great at stopping the run this season, allowing the 6th most rushing yards to opposing running backs coming into this week. Four times the Texans have allowed a team to rush for over 100 yards on them this season and one other time was close at 91.

I don’t expect this game to be a high-scoring affair, but that may only help Anderson cash the over for us here on Monday Night Football.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 54.5 (-125) 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada, now offering 100% cash bonus   

 

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