NFL Week 6 TNF Prop Picks: Broncos vs. Chargers

Chargers player Antonio Gates

Thursday, October 13, 2016 5:12 PM GMT

Our prop picks have taken a bit of a downward turn lately, but we are still making a nice profit from them overall this season. I am ready to right the ship on Thursday night. Here are my two best prop picks for Thursday Night Football!

 

NFL Season Prop Record: 38-30-2 

 

Will there be a score in the first 6:30?

Thursday Night Football is a different animal than the rest of the week. Without proper rest for these teams, things can get a little crazy and unpredictable. However, one constant so far in Thursday Night games has been the first quarter scoring.

Outside of the Bengals and Dolphins game, where the Bengals got an early field goal, the other TNF games have seen scoring come late in the first quarter.

Last week we didn’t even see a score in the entire first quarter and with these two teams, scoring might be pretty hard to come by early in the game. Both of these teams have only scored first in a game once out of their five games and while the Broncos’ defense should do well to hold off the Chargers and even though Trevor Siemian is starting for the Broncos, I don’t see any early scores in this Thursday night contest.

 

Free NFL Pick: No (-105) 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

Antonio Gates O/U 34 ½ receiving yards

The veteran tight end has had a fantastic career, but it is on the down swing. Gates has already missed some time this season and even when he is playing, his snap counts have been limited. He only has 14 targets in three games and the Chargers have relegated him to somewhat of an inside the 20s threat.

However, with the emergence of Hunter Henry, Gates’ age and his injuries this season, his odds of going over his prop from Bovada tonight are slim to none. He isn’t going to be running any 30-yard routes down the field, as his longest catch this season is only nine yards.

Outside of big third downs and redzone chances, Gates likely won’t be on the field, especially on a short week. Another factor in this one is the Broncos’ defense, which has been very good against tight ends this season.

On the year, the Broncos have allowed no more than 50 yards per game to opposing tight ends and last week they held the Falcons’ tight ends to only 15 yards on two catches. I expect Henry to get most of the downfield work and the catches in between the 20s, which will lead to Gates falling under his yards total. He has yet to go over 30 receiving yards in a game this season and it won't start tonight. Back the under for your Thursday night football picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 34 ½ (-115)

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

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