Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. That turns out to be true in looking at NFL football lines, and we have done our best to identify what potential picks offer the best value.
The term “value” means different things to different people. If you are purchasing a high ticket item – value – might mean the best price while sacrificing a bit in quality. Others might see the value by paying the most for a top-quality product, as the perception is it will last longer and offer greater enjoyment.
Moving to football, the value can mean finding a line on a game that is below the perceived market expectations, making it a good wager for NFL picks.
At the same time, the top value could be on the right side of a half-point hook, and many sharp bettors would want to have the right number (value) than always the right team. For the three games chosen, we will give you a bit of both sides of the value in the scenario.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 18, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
If you look at any power ratings that are available in the NFL, you will find the Baltimore Ravens listed either first or in the Top 3 despite having a loss compared to the four remaining undefeated teams.
Philadelphia on the other hand is 1-3-1 and continues to try and overcome a bevy of injuries. Fortunately for them, they are in the weakest division in the NFL. The Eagles can still reach the playoffs, possibly with a 7-8-1 record.
The NFL odds have Philly at +10, and while over 80 percent of football bettors are backing Baltimore in this battle of birds, the greater value is on the Eagles.
Besides the half-point hook on Philadelphia, they offer two appealing prospects to mostly sharp bettors. Carson Wentz might not be considered a Top 7 quarterback, but give him a little time to throw and he can still move the chains. Last week he helped his team score 29 points in defeat.
The Philly defense is a respectable 13th overall, and they rank third in sacks thus far. If Philadelphia can hit some big plays and get Lamar Jackson in enough third and longs, where they can heat him up into inaccurate pass attempts, Doug Pederson’s team can hang around at home and beat the spread.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 18, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Back in Chris Berman’s formative years at ESPN, Green Bay and Tampa Bay were in the old NFC Central. Both were terrible teams, and he referred to this contest as “The Bay of Pigs”.
Green Bay has been at least a division contender, if not more, closing in on three decades. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has enjoyed success here and there. The Buccaneers have gone all-in on trying to reach a Super Bowl in signing Tom Brady, and all those years of high draft picks are paying out on the field these days.
The line on this game started the Packers at +1, they were flipped to -2 at Bookmaker and is now at -1 and a Pick at other sportsbooks.
Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are playing great, nevertheless, their defense is exploitable, especially against someone of Brady’s skill level.
Though the Vita Vea is a big loss in the middle for the Bucs defense, they still come into this confrontation No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 against the run. Rodgers has his offense hitting on all cylinders, but the running game sets up everything and as San Francisco showed last year, take away that element and the Pack’s offense is less potent. The Bucs winning is not a stretch.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 18, 2020 - 8:20 PM ET at Levi's Stadium
The Rams are rollin’ and the 49ers are just trying to find able bodies to suit up. The earliest lines had San Francisco at -3, but that was completely turned around to Los Angeles now at -3.5.
Kyle Shanahan has nowhere near a full deck and is doing his best just to fill the 11 spots on both sides of the line of scrimmage. So why are we giving San Fran a puncher’s chance? It’s the NFL. Often enough the worst of teams are good bets and with the Niners possible playoffs riding on this contest, at least in the short term, they are desperate for a victory.
Now if every team that needed a victory got one, betting sports would be easy. Yet, in this case, we have a home underdog facing a true rival with their backs against the proverbial wall, with unlimited desperation; that at least is a call to action. Let’s also not forget this is the Rams second consecutive road game and the last four times that has happened, they hung an ‘L’ in the loss column.