NFL Week 6 Predictions - Early Leans For Sunday's Slate

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 11, 2016 3:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2016 3:10 PM UTC

Our NFL handicapping professional shares his top 3 early leans on Sunday’s card. If you want the ultimate NFL betting edge, then this compelling article is a must read.


Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins  

Philadelphia is allowing a paltry 12.7 points per game through its first 4 contests. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has been highly successful in this role in prior stops at Buffalo and Tennessee. His players are certainly drinking the Kool-Aid he’s been serving them. He can also thank his offense for keeping his stop unit off the field. Philadelphia has averaged a massive 9:58 time of possession advantage per game thus far. The Eagles are coming off a 24-23 loss at Detroit on Sunday, and it marked their first loss of the season.

The Redskins are coming off a 16-10 win at Baltimore this past Sunday. Washington is 7-1 under the total during their previous 8 division home contests, following a game in which they scored 26 points or less.

At the time of this writing, NFL betting odds at 5Dimes, widely regarded as one of the premier online betting sites, had a total of 45.0 in this contest. Any team (Washington) playing in a division game with a total of 42.5 to 47.5, coming off a game in which they scored 37 points or less, versus an opponent (Philadelphia) coming off a game in which they also scored 37 points or less, resulted in those games going 26-4 (86.7%) under the total since 2008.


Free NFL Pick: Under 45.0
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have gone a terrible 8-27 ATS in their last 35 games as a pick or favorite. They also were a poor 13-22 straight up in those contests. If they were playing with revenge in that precise situation, Oakland fell to 4-16 ATS, and 7-13 straight up. Oakland lost both games against Kansas City a year ago, and this will be the first time they’re facing them this season. Oakland is coming off a 34-31 win over San Diego, but failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite.

Any road team that’s +3.0 to -3.0 (Chiefs) in a division game, versus an opponent coming off a straight up win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, resulted in those road teams going 14-1 straight up and 15-0 ATS since 2007.


Free NFL Pick: Chiefs +1.0
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline 

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Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers 

Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a non-division favorite of 9.5 or less. They won all 9 of those games straight up, and did so by a sizable average of 14.0 points per contest. It certainly makes Green Bay difficult to go against in this spot. I’m certainly not willing to do so, and one of my NFL week 6 predictions will be indicative of such.

Any non-division home favorite (Packers) of 4.0 or less that’s playing in game 4 or beyond, coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and has a winning record, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, and thy also have a winning record, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 ATS since 1984. The average margin of victory was a massive 19.6 points per game.


Free NFL Pick: Packers -4.0
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker 

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