NFL Week 6 - Identifying Early Sharp Action

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 8:46 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016 8:46 PM UTC

Patriots, Titans and Chiefs have seen early action from the Sharps in NFL Week 6 as the opening line in all three of those games have moved. Let’s micro-analyze these three games and try to determine if they are making NFL picks.


Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

Line Opener: Patriots -7 -110, Sunday 6:59 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)
Current Line: Patriots -8 -115, Monday, 2:07 p.m. (BetOnline)

Destined to go higher, sportsbook 5Dimes actually opened this game up at 9½ Sunday night—it’s now 10 there (+110)—and with online sportsbooks tending to be ahead of the curve and often being pounded by Sharp gamblers money late Sunday and early Monday. Meaning if you want to back Tom Brady (73-50-6 at Home) and the Patriots in NFL Week 6, shop now, find an 8 if you can like at BetOnline—now offering a 50% Free Play for new signups. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook advanced line on this one was New England -7, so those participating in that niche market may have Middle potentials on 8, 9 and maybe even 10 by kickoff. 


Free NFL Pick: Patriots -8 -115 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans

Line Openers: Titans -5½, Sunday 7:02 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)
Current Line: Titans -6½ -125, Monday 4:136 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)

Again, heavy sharp money offshore on the upstart Titans who after so long being an automatic go-against, are finally starting to evolve as an NFL team with young players like QB Marcus Mariota, RB DeMarco Murray and LB Avery Williamson, it doesn’t even matter that this team is 10-25-1 ATS in its L36 games as Mariota’ ability to run as a QB brings a whole new dimension to the Offense. And this point spread is already at (Titans) -8 +110 at 5Dimes as bettors fade the lowly Browns (1-15 SU L16) who saw starting QB Cody Kessler get hurt and be replaced by Charlie Whitehurst in Sunday’s 33-13 throttling by the Patriots at FirstEnergy Stadium. Perhaps Cleveland (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) is replacing Tennessee (2-3 SU/ATS) as the weekly NFL fade. Like the Patriots, if you want to back the Titans (0-3-1 ATS L4 Home vs. Browns), best do it now and seek a 6½ (BetOnline) if you can find it. 


Free NFL Pick: Titans +6.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders  

Line Openers: Raiders -1½ -105, Sunday 10:26 p.m. EDT (GTBets)
Current Line: Raiders -1, Monday 4:15 p.m. EDT (GTBets)

Again some wiseguy money on the Chiefs, although buyback and resistance early in the week (Monday) offshore when this game moves to Pick ‘Em. We’ll see if that lasts. Why money on Kansas City in this spot? Most professional gamblers are well aware of Oakland’s nasty history at Home recently SU (19-26 L45 and 5 straight 3-5 seasons in Oakland), know the Chiefs are coming off their Bye Week and some may even be betting into (against) their own Raiders Regular Season Team Win Totals (Over) futures bets. Tough to see this number moving too much and maybe those backing Under the opening Total may have the right idea here in a game that’s too tough to want to back Alex Smith (34-30-2 ATS on Road) and the Chiefs (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) who have simply had too much trouble scoring points these last couple of seasons. Pass.

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NFL Overall Picks Record: 38-27-1


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