NFL Week 6 Biggest Spreads & Free Expert Picks

Tom Brady Celebrating

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, October 16, 2016 1:16 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016 1:16 PM GMT

A 1-1-1 ATS record on the biggest NFL spread picks of last week, hitting on Pittsburgh giving 7.5 to the New York Jets and pushing on Green Bay -7 against the Giants. Here are three of the biggest Week 6 spreads on BetOnline odds.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots -8.5 

New England was +12 last week at Cleveland, and that was my one loss of Week 5 as I thought the Browns would be down 17 or so in the fourth quarter and score a garbage touchdown against the New England reserves to cover. The Pats won 33-13, but I still say the Browns might have covered if QB Cody Kessler hadn't been knocked out with an injury. The Browns had no shot for a late score with Charlie Whitehurst under center. Of course, the big story of that game was Tom Brady's season debut off suspension for New England. All he did was throw for 406 yards and three touchdowns. It was Brady's 38th career game with at least 350 yards passing, which is second most all-time. The leader is the Saints' Drew Brees with 51. It was also the 250th career win for Pats coach Bill Belichick, including playoffs. He's only the fourth coach to reach 250 victories. He won't catch No. 3 Tom Landry (270) until at least late next season. This should be a zoo at Foxboro as it's Brady's first home game of the year. Think Commissioner Roger Goodell will be in attendance? Yeah, me neither.  

Cincinnati has made the playoffs five years in a row but that's in jeopardy with the Bengals at 2-3. They were manhandled in Dallas last week as slight betting favorites. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton leads the AFC with 1,503 passing yards but it hasn't translated to much. The seat of Coach Marvin Lewis is getting warm. The Bengals were routed 43-17 in  New England two years ago as Brady threw for 292 yards and two scores.

NFL Free Pick: Do the Bengals have any heart? If they do, it comes out this week or the playoffs are a long shot. Take the points. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 road games.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins +7.5

Currently at SBR's best sportsbooks, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a co-favorite at +500 to win his first NFL MVP Award with Atlanta's Matt Ryan. Big Ben threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns in last week's blowout win over the Jets and he leads the NFL with 15 TD throws, a franchise record through the first five games of the season. With another four-touchdown performance on Sunday, Roethlisberger would be tied for the fourth-most passing touchdowns through the first six games of a season in the Super Bowl era. Big Ben would need to tie the NFL record of seven TD passes to tie the record of 22 through six games set by Peyton Manning with the Broncos in 2013. Miami's pass defense is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 250 yards per game and eight TD throws overall.  

The Dolphins (1-4) might be the second-worst team in the AFC right now behind winless Cleveland. They were stunned at home by Tennessee in Week 5, 30-17. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is regressing. The team hired Adam Gase as its new head coach this offseason because of his prior work with QBs like Manning and Jay Cutler, but it's not working yet with Tannehill. Gase was asked many times this week if he was considering a change under center, but backup Matt Moore is a journeyman so Gase remains committed to Tannehill.

NFL Free Pick: I would buy this down to at least -7 but go Steelers. Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its past seven at home.

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 San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills -7.5

Two teams going in opposite directions as the 49ers have lost four in a row and the Bills have won three straight for the first time in five years to take Coach Rex Ryan off the hot seat. Buffalo has been a different team since Ryan fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman after a 0-2 start and replaced him with Anthony Lynn, who interviewed for the 49ers' head coaching job this offseason. Lynn has really emphasized the running game and LeSean McCoy has totaled 330 yards in the winning streak. McCoy could be in line for a big day here as he might still be ticked that Chip Kelly traded him from the Eagles to the Bills before last season. Of course, Kelly was the Philadelphia coach then but now leads San Francisco. He made a quarterback change this week, benching the struggling Blaine Gabbert for Colin Kaepernick in the biggest NFL news of the week. Kaepernick also restructured his contract so that if he's hurt the 49ers aren't on the hook for next year's salary. He's betting on himself to finish the season strong and hit free agency. Kaepernick's last start was Nov. 1 of last season in St. Louis, a 27-6 49ers loss. He was just 20-for-41 for 162 yards. But there's little question that Kaepernick's upside is higher than Gabbert's. It's worth a shot as the 49ers are going nowhere and surely will take a QB with their very high first-round pick next year.

NFL Free Pick: I would also buy this down to at least 7, but go Bills. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its past six at home. 

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