NFL Week 6 Betting - Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Odds & Free Picks

Dallas Cowboys players in action

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 6:56 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016 6:56 PM UTC

They may have rookies at the top “skill” positions, but the Dallas Cowboys have thrived against the NFL odds. Can they keep it up Sunday versus the Green Bay Packers? Find Out Here.



Record: 8-6 ATS, 4-7 Totals

Some lessons take longer to sink in than others. Every once in a while, the home office comes up with a solid NFL pick against the spread, then I exercise my veto and replace it with a pick against the total. Case in point: last week's game between the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants. The office was willing to recommend the Giants at +7.5, but I looked at the depleted secondaries on both sides and suggested OVER 47.5 instead. Final score: Green Bay 23, New York 16.

Live and learn. We've got another close decision with the Packers in this Sunday's home game against the Dallas Cowboys; Dallas is a 4-point road dog on the NFL odds board at press time, and our early consensus reports show support for both sides in very light action. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside a football.

Dakotomous Key

Let's demystify things a little. The Cowboys (4-1 SU and ATS) look like the obvious pick in this situation; they've played nearly as well as the Packers (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) this year, posting a plus-4.l to Green Bay's plus-4.6 on the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football-Reference. If we give the Packers a 2.5-point home-field advantage at Lambeau, and another half-point in SRS advantage, that's only three points.

FiveThirtyEight see things differently. They've projected an Elo-based spread of Green Bay –5.5 for Sunday's matchup, but Elo doesn't know much about QB Dak Prescott. He's done a tremendous job of filling in for the injured Tony Romo, far better than anyone did last year when Romo was on the shelf. Prescott was fourth on the DVOA charts (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) through Week 4, then he had another strong game in last week's 28-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals (–2.5 away). That's Pro Bowl-quality.

Which brings us back to Green Bay's secondary. Eli Manning made a meal of his game against the Packers, whiffing on all six of his deep throws. That's less likely to happen this week with Prescott playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL – and playing next to another hot rookie in RB Ezekiel Elliott. Let's roll with the Cowboys for a small wager, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Cowboys +4 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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