We got roughed up in our player props, but we are still posting a small profit in the player props department and I plan on making it even bigger tonight with two winner player week 5 prop picks!
David Johnson O/U 39 ½ receiving yards
David Johnson is the seventh most targeted running back in the NFL so far through four weeks. While that’s not a lot, he has done the most with it as well. With only 21 targets, Johnson has turned that into 14 catches for 210 yards through the air. His elusiveness and speed has allowed him to break off some pretty big runs and other than Spencer Ware, who has filled in for Jamaal Charles this season, Johnson leads all starting running backs in yards per catch.
He is also averaging a smooth 10 yards per target this season. While his four catches of 20-plus yards have helped in that, with Carson Palmer out tonight and Drew Stanton under center, the odds of Johnson getting a few more dump-offs goes up against the Niners.
The Niners have also not been great against running backs so far this season and with guys like Navorro Bowman out, it might get worse. San Francisco’s defense is allowing opposing running backs 4.6 yards per carry, and the Seattle and Dallas run games dominated them in Weeks 3 and 4.
I expect Johnson to carry a heavy workload in this one, but I also think he will catch another four or five passes, which should lead to the over in tonight’s NFC West battle.
Free NFL Pick: Over 39.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Torrey Smith O/U 35.5 receiving yards
Torrey Smith has not been anywhere close to the receiver that once went for almost 2000 yards and 15 touchdowns in two years in Baltimore. Since coming over to the Niners, Smith has been an afterthought in the offense. While there isn’t much passing offense anyway, Smith is coming off two straight poor games, even thought the Niners were trailing throughout the game.
Even in a game where he was targeted a lot in Carolina, he caught only three of 10 targets. While that may be due to the quarterback play, it’s highly unlikely that the Niners give Smith the four to five targets he will need to cash the over in this one.
He is also going up against Patrick Peterson in this one, which hurts his chances of making enough catches in this one. Peterson is one of the top cornerbacks in the league and even though Arizona’s pass defense hasn’t lived up to the hype yet this season, against an almost non-existent pass offense in San Francisco, they will show up tonight.
Free NFL Pick: Under 35.5 (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada, now offering 100% cash bonus
Season Player Props Record: 16-13-2