NFL Week 5 Predictions - 'Under' Has Legs In Chargers-Raiders Matchup

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 9, 2016 1:39 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016 1:39 PM UTC

There's only one 50-plus total on the Week 5 NFL odds board, and it's for Sunday afternoon's AFC West tilt between the San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders.


The New Orleans Saints do not have the highest total on the NFL odds board this week. The Saints have the bye for Week 5, so we turn our attention westward, where the Oakland Raiders host the San Diego Chargers this Sunday afternoon. This game opened with a total of 52.5, and it's down to 51 points at press time, despite our consensus reports showing strong support for the Over. Should we go ahead and put the standard contrarian Under in our NFL week 5 picks?

Probably. We'd certainly prefer having the total above the magic 51-point mark. The weather report calls for sunny skies over Oakland, which doesn't help our cause. And the Over is 3-1 thus far for each of the two teams involved. But some below-the-radar injuries on both sides could keep Sunday's game on the quieter side.


Block and Tackle

First and foremost, you've got what's left of San Diego's offensive line. LT King Dunlap (migraines) and RT Joe Barksdale (foot) are questionable after putting in limited practices on Thursday. LG Orlando Franklin (knee) and RT Chris Hairston (groin) were able to practice in full. Life could be worse, but the Chargers have already allowed nine sacks on QB Philip Rivers, and their run blocking has been average at best – just when offensive co-ordinator Ken Whisenhunt says his team needs to focus on the ground game.

Oakland has a pair of questionable right tackles in Menelik Watson (calf) and Austin Howard (ankle), plus back-up LT Matt McCants (knee). They've also got issues at tight end; Lee Smith (leg) was put on injured reserve Wednesday, and Clive Watford (knee) is still not 100-percent to play after putting in a limited practice on Thursday. RB Latavius Murray will probably sit out this week with a case of turf toe, and he's a decent blocking back, so QB Derek Carr could be exposed after getting sacked just twice through Week 4.

If betting trends are your thing, the Under is 4-2 between these two teams since Mike McCoy took over as San Diego's head coach in 2013. And McCoy should have the Chargers focused on defense this week after giving up late touchdowns in every game. Let's “buy low” on the Under, but wait for the public to come in on the Over and drive that total back above 51 points.

Free NFL Pick: Under 51.5
Best Line Offered: at Youwager
Record: 6-5 ATS, 4-5 Totals

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