NFL Week 5 Predictions: Redskins vs. Ravens Odds & Free Picks

Baltimore Ravens player in action

Saturday, October 8, 2016 9:00 PM GMT

The Baltimore Ravens fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 4 Let’s look at this inter-conference matchup on Sunday afternoon and make a case for fading the visitors for my NFL pick.

 Washington Redskins vs Baltimore Ravens

Opener: BAL -4 -115 (BetOnline)
Current: BAL -3½ (BetOnline)

Movement Analysis: Only sight movement in this NFL Week 5 inter-conference game so far, but a ½-point swing on Redskins money from 4 to 3½ in most offshore sportsbooks and the majority of this is probably Sharp money and the reason why more likely about the Point Spread being over that key NFL number of +3, and those +4’s and +3½’s having some perceived value for the Wiseguys. The Consensus shows almost twice as much bet on Kirk Cousins and Washington and if this line does end up going to 3, expect some money to come in on Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Some reasons why the Ravens may be the right side? It’s a Home game at M&T Bank Stadium, the Blackbirds are coming off a Loss and we’re talking about the Washington Redskins (9-13 ATS Road Underdog L3 years) who as you can see below have allowed a gaudy 7.7 Yards Per Play on the Road so far this season. By contrast, Baltimore’s Defense has allowed just 4.2 YPP at Home.

 

Relevant Series and Overall Trends, Best Approach

Washington (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, Over 13-3 L16) has played in games with 50-56 points scored—all Overs with 20, 23, 27 and 34 points scored in the 1st Halves (34, 27, 23, 17 in 2H)—while star veteran WR Steve Smith and Baltimore (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) have alternated Unders and Overs.

The Ravens +405 to win the AFC North at Heritage Sports—now offering 50% Sign-Up Bonus—have been poor at Home (2-10-1 ATS L13) lately and Washington is 4-0 ATS in its L4 Road games—all Overs (5 Consecutive Road Overs). So it seems maybe the best approach here is to shop for the best money line NFL odds on the Ravens, which are -185 at Sportsbook.ag Offshore and -180 at Treasure Island here in Las Vegas, and back the hosts, possibly using this with the Vikings and Broncos on the M/L. Baltimore suffered its first loss last weekend to the Raiders in Baltimore, so Head Coach John Harbaugh (76-64-7 ATS), QB Flacco (22-22-2 ATS off Loss) and WR Steve Smith will be motivated by that and knowing a tough AFC North schedule remains after a soft schedule start (BUF-CLE-JAX-OAK-WAS), the Ravens should find a way to win this. 


Key Player Injuries, Suspensions

Washington Redskins - Su'a Cravens expected to miss Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Concussion ), Shawn Lauvao probable Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Ankle ), Josh Doctson out indefinitely ( Achilles ), Bashaud Breeland expected to miss Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Ankle ), Ryan Kerrigan probable Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Elbow ), David Bruton Jr. IR ( Concussion ), Dashaun Phillips expected to miss Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Hamstring ), Kory Lichtensteiger IR ( Calf ), DeAngelo Hall IR ( Knee ), Kedric Golston IR ( Hamstring ), Derek Carrier PUP ( Knee ), Keith Marshall IR ( Elbow ), Junior Galette IR ( Achilles ).

 

Baltimore Ravens - Kenneth Dixon probable Sunday vs. Washington ( Knee ), Maxx Williams IR ( Knee ), Maurice Canady IR ( Thigh ), Ronnie Stanley doubtful Sunday vs. Washington ( Foot ), Sheldon Price probable Sunday vs. Washington ( Thigh ), Michael Campanaro IR ( Calf ), Carl Davis IR ( Undisclosed ), Chris Matthews IR ( Undisclosed ), De'Ondre Wesley IR ( Undisclosed ), Nick Boyle expected to miss first 11 games ( Suspension ), Matt Elam IR ( Knee ), Lorenzo Taliaferro PUP ( Foot ), Kyle Arrington IR ( Concussion )

 

 

Free NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens -186 
Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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