NFL Week 5 Predictions - Perception/Reality Game Between Patriots & Browns

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 8, 2016 10:21 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 10:21 PM UTC

Each week I offer a contrary opinion based on the fact that the line maker and public have overvalued one team based on their perception of their performance but the reality is different. Join me as I break down the game between Patriots and Browns for this week's NFL picks.


For those of you who heeded the advice of last week’s article entitled “The CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club,” you profited handsomely with Saturday’s selections that went 6-2 ATS. Selections on this site are now 29-17 ATS with more winners on tap for this weekend. If you enjoyed last week’s article, then you will be sure to read this week’s NFL article called “2016 NFL Teams Run to the Bank.” There you will read about NFL situations that provide 85% ATS winners, along with bonus situations that are 93% and 100% ATS this year in the NFL. Enjoy the winners.


New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns 

Each week in this space I offer a contrary opinion based on the fact that the line maker and public have overvalued one team based on their PERCEPTION of their performance. The REALITY is that the opposing team is playing better than the line maker gives them credit for, and presents great value in the contest today. Such is the case with the PERCEPTION of the New England Patriots, who come off a home shutout loss and now find Tom Brady returning to the fold following his 4 game suspension. In the eyes of the public, Cleveland remains, well with an 0-4 SU record, dropping them to 3-17 SU in their last 20 games. 

There is no doubt that New England is in a positive situation as reflected by this statistic. The Patriots are off their first shutout loss, 16-0 to Buffalo, since 1993. Under HC Belichick, New England is 31-11 ATS following a defeat, a role in which we have made a lot of money in recent years. On the other hand, taking a wider perspective, all NFL teams following the last 60 home shutout losses have just a 30% chance to win the following game outright, after being skunked. Aside from that, this has clearly not been the role for New England in recent seasons. The road team is now just 15-37 ATS in New England games, while Belichick is on a 4-13 ATS run as road chalk, including 0-7 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points in conference play. With New England coming off 3 consecutive home games, it provides an additional negative situation for the Patriots. 

I’m well aware that the Browns are on a 3-17 SU and 3-11 ATS slide. Under first year HC Hue Jackson, there has been meaningful improvement. Three weeks ago, they led Baltimore 20-0 before a 25-20 loss. Two weeks ago, they played Miami virtually even before a 30-24 OT loss. Last week, they were again in the game with Washington, running 28 times for 163 yards and piling up 380 total yards despite losing 31-20. The last three weeks, the Browns have outgained each of those 3 opponents. They remain resilient with a record of 7-1 ATS as a dog following a defeat. Cleveland has the running game at 26/149/5.7 to stay competitive in this. And with the perception/reality working in their favor, this is an outstanding contrary selection.

I invite you to put the NFL betting odds in your favor and join me in my NFL week 4 pick on the Cleveland Browns this afternoon.


Free NFL Pick: Browns +10 -105
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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