NFL Week 5 Predictions: Game-by-Game SU Rundown & Free Picks

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 3:47 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016 3:47 PM UTC

We run down the slate currently trading across the board and analyse each and every game with a view towards serving up week 5 NFL picks for your money line bets. Let's get cracking!


NFL Week 4 Betting Recap

The fourth week of the NFL is in the books and for the most part it was a right cracker. Bills stunned the Patriots, Steelers steamrolled the Chiefs and the Broncos and Vikings emerge as the only two teams sporting a 4-0 SU record.  As far as our NFL picks went, it was a positive week altogether with winning records both SU and ATS.


Nikki Adams Game-by-Game Picks Records SU, ATS and Totals

Week 4 SU: 8-7-0            (Overall Season Record: 40-23-0)
Week 4 ATS: 11-4-0        (Overall Season Record: 43:20-0)
Week 4 Totals: 7-8-0      (Overall Season Record 29-33-1)


Thursday, October 6, 2016Cardinals vs. Niners

Chip Kelly had the perfect opportunity to get Colin Kaepernick’s feet wet in week 3 when the Niners were trailing the Seahawks 37-3 going into the fourth quarter. What does the head coach do? Stay the course. What does he do in week 4? Stay the course again. So long as Gabbert is at centre, the Niners are destined to be a middling side in the league and, crucially, the worst of the NFC West field. No ifs or buts about it. Who will start for the Niners in week 5? No word to suggest otherwise, so we can assume it’s going to be another Gabbert-gong-show that will have Niners nation cringing in shame before a national television audience.

Now, Kelly’s side does appear to catch a break in some respects. Carson Palmer has a concussion and may not start, which paves the way for Drew Stanton. Obviously, the Cards are deemed a better side with their prized quarterback otherwise odds makers wouldn’t have reduced the NFL betting lines on this game to make it a closer contest on the NFL odds board. Then again, two years ago Bruce Arians was in a similar such position and Stanton was up for the task.

At face value, this is a matchup of 1-3 SU teams. Dig a little bit deeper, the so-called X’s and O’s tell a different story. The Niners offense can’t move the ball with Gabbert, who is as inaccurate, inconsistent and unpredictable as he’s always been. Granted the Cards aren’t the same team that rode roughshod over the NFC West last season but a matchup against a floundering Niners side might just be the tonic to perk them up.


Free NFL Picks: Cardinals -150 
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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Sunday, October 9, 2016Patriots vs. Browns

Tom Brady is back, Patriots nation is thrilled. This has to be the most straightforward matchup of the week’s NFL betting card. No disrespect to the Cleveland Browns. Hue Jackson has made a positive impact on the team – it’s evident in the heart and fight they’ve shown in all their games despite emerging with a 0-4 SU mark. They just can’t seem to catch a break and it’s hard to see how they’ll do so against a Patriots side installed to full strength again. Put this way, colour the world shocked if the Patriots lose this one.


Free NFL Picks: Patriots -600 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 Eagles vs. Lions

The Lions slip to 1-3 SU following a 17-14 loss to the hapless Chicago Bears in week 4. It marked their third straight loss since week 1 and the upset over the Colts, but of all those games that was one of the worst altogether. Jim Caldwell had no words to describe how poor his team’s performance was. Not surprisingly, the Lions fall out of favour on the NFL odds board and in public betting circles.

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a bye week. They bring a 3-0 SU record to Ford Field and a rookie quarterback that the public is just crushing on more and more with each passing week. The kid hasn’t even thrown an interception yet! What’s up with the 2016 class of NFL draft picks but they are making it look way to easy.


Free NFL Picks: Eagles -150 
Best Line Offered:at 5Dimes

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Bears vs. Colts

Following the 17-14 win over the Lions, whispers of a quarterback controversy are being heard around the league. Finally the Bears are in the win column and a lot of it had to do with Hoyer.  (Could Jay Cutler be benched in favour of Brian Hoyer?) If Hoyer does in fact start this game (no word on Cutler’s thumb injury), the Bears just might have a shot in this game. Granted this is a battle of 1-3 SU teams, but the Colts are coming off a trip to London. Brazenly forgoing the bye week traditionally allotted to a team making such a trip. Are they mad? John Fox had enough run-ins with Andrew Luck and the Colts when he was at Denver. One could argue, the loss to the Colts in the playoffs two years ago cost him his job at Mile High. Nothing like getting validation and leading his Bears to a victory at Lucas Oil Stadium. Oh, and Hoyer is familiar with this Colts side too having spent a season with the Texans last year. It’s a long shot NFL pick in some respects, but not a totally unreasonable one.


Free NFL Picks: Bears +190 
Best Line Offered:at 5Dimes 

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Titans vs. Dolphins

Neither the Titans nor the Dolphins strike a convincing pose on the NFL odds board ahead of week 5. Both are 1-3 SU and coming off a loss in week 4. Dolphins lost to the Bengals in primetime Thursday Night Football while the Titans were edged by the Houston Texans. There are those that firmly believe the Dolphins should have lost their home opener to the Browns in week 3, which had they would see them sporting a 0-4 SU mark ahead of week 5. There is no point to such supposition here. Suffice it to say, something is going to have to give when these two teams collide. Seeing as the Titans don’t look to have figured out how to win games but rather keep them close it’s worth it to hedge your bets on this game with a SU NFL week 5 pick on the Dolphins and then shading the Titans plus the points on your spread bets. That said, it wouldn’t shock if the Titans finally figure out how to win.


Free NFL Picks: Dolphins -175
Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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Redskins vs. Ravens

After getting off to a slow start and dropping both home games the Redskins hit the road to take a headscratcher at MetLife and then return to FedEx field to heap more misery on the Browns. As a result, the Redskins are 2-2 SU and back in the race for the NFC East title. The Ravens, meanwhile, dropped a narrow game at home to the Oakland Raiders in week 4. On the heels of that loss, the NFL odds for the hosts dropped slightly. They’re not winning over NFL bettors either it seems because the teams they are beating aren’t exactly part of the league’s glitterati – Bills, Browns and Jags. However, the same could be said of the Redskins who’ve only beaten the Giants and Browns. From those wins it’s difficult to gage either team. When in doubt, go with the home team?


Free NFL Pick: Ravens -185
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Texans vs. Vikings

Minnesota Vikings emerge with a perfect 4-0 SU record following a comprehensive 24-10 win over NY Giants in MNF, and Sam Bradford (to the chagrin of his doubters and critics) is a perfect 3-0 SU with the Vikings since starting in week 2. Consider Bradford signed the dotted line eight days before the start of the 2016 season, spending merely a couple of weeks working and preparing with his new team before starting against the NFC North heavyweights Green Bay Packers. It’s as if he’s always been in Minnesota; so at home and comfortable with the Vikings offense that is really is quite remarkable how quickly he’s adjusted. In any event, the Vikings next welcome the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium. New England Patriots exposed the Texans to a 27-0 loss at Gillette Stadium, an outcome few NFL bettors and experts alike expected and, in turn, it prompted many to reassess their opinions about the Texans. To date that was Houston’s only away game, which means they are 0-1 SU and ATS on the road. Set to take on one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL with the memory of that loss still stinging, plus the knowledge that J.J. Watt is out for the season…It would take a bold bettor to back Houston for the out-and-out upset.

Free NFL Picks: Vikings -270
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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 Jets vs. Steelers

The Jets are in a bit of a pickle, succumbing to their second straight loss in week 4 NFL betting. It doesn’t help their cause that they are set to face a Steelers’ side that just lit up the Kansas City Chiefs, a team they lost to abysmally in week 3 at Arrowhead. One fears for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets in this game. They really are a better team than their 1-3 SU record suggests.  Loathe to dismiss the Jets entirely out of hand – they do have a shot in this game – but  it’s hard to go against Pittsburgh after the way they decimated the Chiefs in SNF. Perhaps, the smart strategy would be to hedge bets with a win for the hosts in SU betting and a cover on the road for the visitors. Keep in mind, the Steelers did lose to the Eagles 34-3 two weeks ago, something few would have predicted.


Free NFL Picks: Steelers -320
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Falcons vs. Broncos

Matt Ryan is the hottest hand going into week 5 NFL betting but a date with the defending champions and top defense in the league just might be too much for the veteran quarterback to overcome. Of course, the Broncos have a bit of a quarterback setback with Trevor Siemian injured. Without a full game under his belt Paxton Lynch is an unknown even though he did look good in the brief stint against the Bucs. However, this is a good team and the pressure isn’t going to be on the rookie quarterback’s shoulders should he get the start. Hard to bet against a good team at home such as the Denver Broncos clearly are. Oh, they are also the only undefeated team in the NFL going into week 5.


Free NFL Picks: Broncos -244 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Bengals vs. Cowboys

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming of a desperately needed win. Beating the Dolphins in primetime Thursday Night Football the Bengals snapped a two-game losing streak to improve to a 2-2 SU record. All is not totally right with Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense though, which has taken the shine off of their NFL odds going into week 5. In fact, NFL bettors are loving what Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are doing – everybody loves a good underdog story and that was exactly what the Cowboys became following Romo’s injury during the preseason. Tale told, the Cowboys are 3-1 SU and coming off a come-from-behind win over the Niners. The decision how to bet this game doesn’t hinge on just a good fairy tale story. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys look to be the real deal and their offense is clicking at all cylinders. Granted the Bengals defense will be the stiffest test Prescott faces thus far, but if Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense don’t find their rhythm a Dallas win at home won’t be such a shocker.


Free NFL Picks: Cowboys
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Bills vs. Rams

The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams were responsible for a couple of upsets that sent seismic shockwaves through sports betting platforms. The Bills shutout the Patriots 13-0 while the Rams edged the Cardinals 17-13. One thing both those wins had in common: backup quarterbacks for the losing teams. No Brady (arguably, the best player for New England) and no Carson Palmer (concussion early in the game) alters the narrative about these wins. It remains to be seen how these two teams stack up. If there’s one thing that could prove deciding it’s the momentum the Bills seem to be enjoying on offense right now. There’s a fluidity that was sorely missing in the first two games. On the flipside, the Rams have done well to defy the odds and move into first place in the NFC West but is it real or just smoke and mirrors.


Free NFL Picks: Bills +125 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes 

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 Chargers vs. Raiders

The Chargers imploded yet again and lost. It was the third game of the season in which they botched it spectacularly. Predictably, they enter this game as the massive road underdogs to Oakland, who are 3-1 SU and riding the momentum of a come-from-behind win in Baltimore. Something has to go Philip Rivers way soon, you’d think? Consider the Raiders are 0-1 SU at home after losing to the Falcons in week 2. And for all the hoopla surrounding the Raiders, they’re flying by the seat of their pants and flirting dangerously with the scoreboard. It’s not the best strategy to win games and it can catch up to them.


Free NFL Picks: Chargers +185 
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction 

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Giants vs. Packers

After a stellar 2-0 SU start the G-men regress behind back-to-back losses to the Redskins and Vikings. The latter was understandable but the former was a missed opportunity and a game that saw Eli Manning’s interceptions rear its ugly head. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a bye week and take a 2-1 SU record into week 5 NFL betting. Their last account at Lambeau was a 34-27 win over the Lions in which the Packers offense played a stellar first half and finally looked as potent as it did two years ago. Consider the Packers have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, it’s hard to look beyond a home win for week 5 NFL picks here. Especially when the G-men look to have lost the plot.


Free NFL Picks: Packers -350
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Monday, October 10, 2016


Bucs vs. Panthers

The Tampa Bay  Buccaneers are 1-3 SU and riding a three-game losing streak with losses to the Cardinals, Ram and Broncos. Next up is a Panthers side that finished runners-up in the Super Bowl but is struggling in 2016 and goes into week 5 NFL betting without Cam Newton. That might seem like catching a break for Jameis Winston and Company, but it would be a mistake to take it for granted. Problem is the Bucs offense is almost non-existent and the defense is struggling too. Unless they’ve somehow figured out their problems, the Panthers should be able to overcome their divisional foes at home.


Free NFL Picks: Panthers -240
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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