NFL WEEK 5 Predictions - Bengals vs. Cowboys Odds & Free Picks

Dallas Cowboys player in action

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 6, 2016 3:46 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016 3:46 PM UTC

Cincinnati Bengals descend on the Dallas Cowboys in week 5 NFL betting, a game cornered eve so slightly with the visitors? Can Dak Prescott and Cowboys defy the NFL odds?

 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott’s debut in week 1 came up slightly short behind a 20-19 loss to the NY Giants. Since then, the two NFC East rivals have enjoyed contrasting fortunes. The Giants have won just one of their last three while the Cowboys have reeled off three straight wins. The result, the Cowboys are sat second in the NFC East with a 3-1 SU record behind the perfect 3-0 SU Eagles. The Giants prop up the NFC East. The upshot of which is the Eagles and Cowboys are currently head-to-head in futures betting markets to win the coveted title, with bet365 for example, pricing the pair at +188 NFL odds.

In spite of the positive nod for their prospects in NFL division markets, the Cowboys emerge as the national home underdogs for week 5 NFL picks. Sportsbooks went to press with the Bengals laying -1 on the road. Depending on your choice SBR top-rated sportsbook that NFL line is either holding strong or whittles down to a PK.

SBR Consensus betting polls reveal the Bengals have 63.3% of early tickets taken as well as 82.62% of the money. That’s one-sided betting which is rather interesting, to say the least.

Why? Well, the Dallas Cowboys have been playing some inspired football while the Cincinnati Bengals haven’t. It’s surprising the public isn’t giving the rookie and the Cowboys the consideration they’ve clearly earned. Dallas is the second best offense according to current stats with 1583 yards of total offense and they are the tenth highest scoring offense with an average of 25.3 points per game.

Where do the Bengals rank? They are 11th in total offense with 1487 yards (so just 100 yards less) but the 24th highest scoring offense with an average of 19.5 points per game. That amounts to the difference of almost 6 points (or a score).

Those that have followed the Bengals closely must have noticed their conspicuous struggles on offense this season, which can’t be overlooked. Granted Andy Dalton is posting some good numbers (yards and such) but those aren’t being converted into meaningful points. 

The Bengals have scored 78 points and conceded 82 points through four games for a 2-2 SU and ATS record, underscored by a -1.0 losing margin on average and a -2.8 differential versus the spread. (It’s no coincidence the game hangs currently on a 1-point spread, is it?)

Dalton sits third in the Offensive Leaders category but he has just 3 TD, 2 INT and a whopping 13 sacks – he is the second most sacked quarterback in the league after Andrew Luck (15), a position shared with Cam Newton and Alex Smith.

There’s an argument to be had in the schedule. It’s not been an easy run with NY Jets in week 1, Pittsburgh Steelers in week 2 and Denver Broncos in week 3. Not until the Miami Dolphins in week 4 did the Bengals look the part in a 22-7 win on Thursday Night Football. Then again, the Dolphins are 1-3 SU and leave much to be desired so there is little takeaway in that account.

Point is, we don’t really know the measure of the Bengals in 2016. Yes, they’ve been perennial contenders over the last five years and are still a tough defensive-minded side. However, the changes on offense and Andy Dalton’s struggles shouldn’t be understated. Which is it exactly what it looks like by the NFL betting trends.

For our money, we’re not convinced the Bengals are the same team that went 8-0 SU last season in the first few months. They’ve been there for the taking and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Dallas proves to have their number. As such, we’re taking the Cowboys plus the points on our week 5 NFL picks.


Free NFL Picks: Cowboys +1 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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