NFL Week 5 Predictions - Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Odds & Free Picks

Denver Broncos player in action

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 10:25 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2016 10:25 PM UTC

Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch? Does it matter? Denver's defense are a stern test for the soaring Atlanta Falcons. Here’s a betting preview explaining why Broncos remain a good NFL pick in week 5.


Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos

Defending Super Bowl champions Denver Broncos are riding high behind a 4-0-SU mark and a perfect 4-0-0 ATS mark in the first month of the season, a run of form underscored by an 11.8 winning margin on average and a +11.0 differential versus the spread.

Those are heady stats considering question marks hung over Denver after they announced unknown Trevor Siemian would be their starter in 2016. Many NFL bettors were concerned Gary Kubiak and John Elway had lost their faculties. Tale told, the Broncos put paid on those concerns with an exclamation point. (Only the Minnesota Vikings match the reigning champions on a 4-0-0 SU and ATS mark, but the Philadelphia Eagles are also undefeated with a 3-0-0 SU and ATS mark.)

Going into week 5 NFL betting, new concerns emerge with the left-shoulder injury to Trevor Siemian. He remains doubtful for Sunday’s clash with Atlanta Falcons at Mile High. However, in spite of the uncertainty at quarterback, Denver opened on the NFL odds board as considerable favourites. The Broncos opened laying -4.5 with most sportsbooks and, intriguingly, since open doors have been bet up to -5.5 or -6 at the exchange.

This may seem a bizarre NFL betting trend when the starter is up in the air. After all, NFL is a quarterback-centric game and not knowing which quarterback will start typically would have the reverse reaction. Clearly, that’s not the case here for a couple of reasons, a) 2016 draft pick Paxton Lynch proved an able replacement in week 4’s victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and b) the Denver defense is a formidable unit that is not only tough to breakdown but scores at will. Aquib Talib was a beast last week in Tampa and contributed to the score significantly with his play.

Seeing how well the Broncos are overcoming various challenges and popular schools of thought that point to the dangers of relying on rookie quarterback play, is it any wonder the public is high on the Broncos for their week 5 NFL picks?

Of course, the Atlanta Falcons cannot be dismissed out of hand. Matt Ryan is the hottest hand in the NFL right now and the offense is firing at all cylinders. Talking about beasts, Julio Jones did his part for the Falcons last week in an impressive win over the Carolina Panthers at the Georgia Dome. A game in which the Falcons found themselves in disfavour on the NFL odds board despite a better record on the season compared with the Panthers and home advantage. If the NFL betting trend continues to bet up the Broncos, there might be some buyback value in the Falcons at +6 or, even, higher should the NFL line go so high.

Still, the Falcons have yet to face a defense of this calibre. So far, they’ve faced some of the worst defenses in Tampa Bay, Oakland, and New Orleans. As well, the Panthers showdown saw Cam Newton suffer a concussion and force Carolina to trot out its backup.

As such, for our money, we’re going with the Denver Broncos to cover as the home chalk. The Falcons are sure to make a match of it but until proven otherwise Denver is the team to beat and the best NFL pick.


Free NFL Picks: Broncos -5.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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