NFL Week 5 Picks: Eight Early Leans

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 1:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016 1:40 PM UTC

Looking at the coming week’s schedule of 14 games, our handicapper makes a list of eight uncommon facts for a gambling culture which knows that there are only two seasons: Football Season and Not Football Season.



It’s already NFL Week 5 and we still have one winless team, Cleveland Browns; and just three undefeated ones so far,Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos; and panic is starting to set in for Panthers, Cardinals, Jets and Colts who were expected to make some noise but are a lowly 1-3.


“First thought is best in Art, second in other matters.” —William Blake

Sometimes the best handicapping thoughts come right after one week’s games have ended and the fresh Point Spreads for the next come in. Here are 8 things that caught my attention when looking at the schedule, and the Opening Week 5 numbers that hit the betting boards before the Steelers dissected the Chiefs on Sunday night:


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1—Lions-Eagles at Ford Field in Motown on Sunday (FOX, 1 p.m. EDT) could be great NFL theater, something not imagined a month ago (PHI -2½, Heritage).

2—The Patriots (-11, at 5Dimes) will paint the winless Browns (3-15 ATS L15 including Preseason) beige in Cleveland on Sunday (CBS, 1 p.m. EDT) in Tom Brady’s return from the Deflategate suspension, winning by at least 20 and scoring at least 24 points by Halftime.

3—The Falcons Arena Football League pace will force their 5th straight Over against the unbeaten Broncos in Denver (55, 63, 77 and 81 points scored in Falcons games this season).

4—You will see a Verizon commercial.

5—The Titans won’t cover...again? Tennessee (1-3 ATS) is 9-26-1 ATS the L2+ seasons now (25.7%) and plays the Dolphins at Miami (MIA -3½, BetOnline) Sunday in Week 5. Last year, Miami won outright 38-10 as 3-point underdogs in Nashville and although this one is at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Ryan Tannehill (11-16 ATS as Favorite) is a hard guy to which wanting to put your money on at the betting window as your NFL Week 5 pick.

6—The Vikings Offense—which has been slowly brewing and Minnesota’s scoring average (21.3 ppg, 18th in NFL) would be worse if not for 2 TDs scored on Defense by Eric Kendricks and a Safety—will awaken in a humbling of the honestly average Texans. Houston QB Brock Osweiler ranks 18th in the NFL in RAW QBR (60.1) while the Vikings had gone 17-3 ATS in their L20 heading into Monday night (MIN-6,

7—The Packers Offense will shine in an Old Man (Rodgers-Manning) Overish Pass-fest vs. the G-Men at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football (NBC, 8:25 p.m. EDT; GB -7, at 5Dimes).

8—The Panthers Offense will take frustrations of back-to-back Broncos-Falcons losses out on Buccaneers in Charlotte on Monday Night Football. Cam Newton (25-15-1 ATS After Loss) and the defending NFC champions are 5-1 ATS the L6 vs. Tampa Bay and beat them 38-10 in this spot at Bank of America Stadium last year as 10-point favorites. Bitter is worth about 11 points here and the Cats have to be scared catless with this 1-3 SU start.


NFL Regular Season Week 5 Pick: Vikings -6 -107
Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb
NFL Picks Record: 32-22-0

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