NFL Week 5 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, August 30, 2017 10:40 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2017 10:40 PM UTC

It’s one of those weeks with a lot of evenly-matched games, so I’d expect that the Steelers over the Jaguars will be a very popular Survivor Pick. Who am I to argue? Survivor Pick: Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 43.5)

This game has the biggest spread on the board. Jacksonville has been a much different team away from home thus far. The Jags were dominated 37-16 by the Titans in their lone game in Jacksonville. They have blowout wins at Houston and vs. Baltimore in London and almost won last week at the Jets, falling 23-20 in overtime. If not for a Marqise Lee late dropped pass, I believe Jacksonville is in sole possession of first in the AFC South at 3-1 instead of a three-way tie at 2-2. Pittsburgh has played quite inconsistent but looked great last week at rival Baltimore in a 26-9 victory – oddly, the Steelers’ second win by that unusual score this season (also Minnesota). Le’Veon Bell blew up with 144 yards rushing and two scores on 35 carries and added 42 yards receiving on four receptions. Antonio Brown was quiet with four catches for 34 yards and threw a temper tantrum on the sideline and was called out by Ben Roethlisberger – as Brown should have been. Pittsburgh will win here, but the Jags should stay within 7.

  • Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Free NFL Pick: Jaguars +9Best Line Offered: Youwager

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This should come down to Pittsburgh’s running game against Jacksonville’s run defense. The Jags are allowing a league-high 165.5 yards on the ground – puzzling with how much talent is on that defense. On the flip side, Jacksonville leads the NFL against the pass. I expect the Jags to load up and stop Bell and make Big Ben win the game; he has been just so-so this year. The Jaguars' defense has already nearly equaled its turnover output from 2016. The Jags have forced 10, including five interceptions. Then you have Blake Bortles. It’s impossible to know what you will get from him. It’s usually bad. In his team’s two wins, his rating has been at least 86.4 with no picks. In the two losses, he hasn’t had a rating better than 63.7 and has thrown three interceptions. Victories over Houston and Baltimore are the most the Jags had in September since the 2008 season. They were 5-22 in games played in September from 2009-16.

  • Under is 8-0 in Steelers last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
  • Under is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Under 43.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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