NFL Week 5 Odds - Identifying Early Public-Sharp Action

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 10:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016 10:23 PM UTC

The Sharps went strong on the favorite Patriots, Steelers and Eagles when the opening point spreads came out late Sunday night. Let’s micro-analyze the Patriots-Browns and Eagles-Lions games and see if either is worth making a midweek pick on with this upward movement on the chalks.

Sunday, October 9, 2016New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns

Line Open: Patriots -10½ +110, Sunday 7:56 p.m. EDT (5Dimes)
Current Line: Patriots -11½ +115, Monday, 1:17 p.m. (5Dimes)

Online sportsbook BetOnline actually opened this game up at 9½ Sunday night—it’s now 10½ there—but those were gobbled up like those $11.11 Black Friday HDTVs. And offshore sportsbook 5Dimes, often a harbinger of future line moves, already (Monday morning) have the Patriots as 11½-point favorites (+115) for this NFL Week 4 mismatch.                       

And we can expect Super Bowl odds-favorite New England to continue to rise through the week as both the General Public and Sharps will want no part of Cleveland which means if you want to back Tom Brady in his return, best to do it now. Actually Bookmaker—now offering a 50% Free Play Bonus (to $300) —just moved off 10 to 10½, so almost all Offshore books have 10½ or higher while the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas are actually showing more 10’s than 10½’s on the odds screen. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Line on this one was New England -10½. 


Free NFL Pick: Patriots -10.5 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions

Line Open: Pick ‘Em, Sunday 7:45 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)
Curren t Line: Eagles -2½, Monday 4:06 p.m. EDT (BetOnline)

A big, 3-point move (from Open to peak), primarily Sharp money Offshore on dynamic Rookie QB Carson Wentz, Darren Sproles and the Eagles, with not only Philadelphia’s ATS Record (3-0) and Offense impressing bettors, but its Defense (27 points allowed, #1 NFL) and the Eagles will be coming in well-rested off their Bye Week. The early Consensus here seems like smart money, and those getting Philly Even to -2 seem to have gotten “the best of it.”                           

But Detroit and QB Matt Stafford (20-27-1 ATS at Home) are 3-1 ATS its L4 vs.Eagles, are at Home at Ford Field and need the Win more here with a 1-4 start looming with a Loss. At Philadelphia -3 or up now, there isn’t enough value left even though Wentz is the real deal. It will be interesting to see if Eagles money keeps coming in if sportsbooks move the line to 3½. Philadelphia is becoming popular with both General Public and Sharp bettors. 


Free NFL Pick: None
NFL Overall Picks Record: 35-22-0
NFL Regular Season Picks Record: 26-17-0

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