NFL Week 5 Betting - Sharps Stay Locked On Chargers, Bills & Broncos

San Diego Chargers players celebrating

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 9, 2016 1:58 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016 1:58 PM UTC

Looking for this week's hottest football pick? Savvy bettors are loading up on the San Diego Chargers at a bargain price for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders.


If you want to make a sharp NFL week 5 pick, you have to trust the process. The San Diego Chargers have played well enough to start the season undefeated, but thanks to some untimely late-game letdowns, they're just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS heading into Sunday's matchup with the Oakland Raiders. Bad form, or just plain bad luck?

Probably some of both. But as long as the Chargers keep playing at their current overall level, they should be even more of a bargain on the NFL odds board at 1-3 than they would have been at 4-0. We've already earmarked San Diego as the target of sharp bettors for Week 5; now that the weekend is here, the Bolts are still drawing the largest average bet size of the bunch at $120 a pop, according to our expanded consensus report. You can still get San Diego at +3.5 as we go to press.

There Is No 'Spoon

As it turns out, we've also recommended the team with the second highest bet size. The Buffalo Bills looked like an easy value pick as 3-point road dogs for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Sure enough, the sharps have pounced on this contest, plunking down an average of $99 on Buffalo to just $26 for L.A. The Bills are drawing 81 percent of the action from just 52 percent of the betting population. Alas, Buffalo is a pick 'em at press time, although some books have the visitors at +1.

So who else looks sharp this week? The Denver Broncos are getting some attention as 4.5-point home favorites this Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons; our reports show Denver pulling in $86 per wager, over twice the size of Atlanta's $42 bets. Starting QB Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is officially a game-time decision, but back-up Paxton Lynch is expected to start against the Falcons.

You can smell the value from here. Lynch looked very good in relief last week as the Broncos (4-0 SU and ATS) beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-7, cashing in as 3.5-point home faves. His job should be easier Sunday versus the No. 31 defense on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders. Plus, the Falcons (3-1 SU and ATS) have put LB Sean Weatherspoon on injured reserve with a ruptured right Achilles' tendon. We'll buy that for a dollar.

Free NFL Pick: Broncos –4 (–102)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Record: 6-5 ATS, 4-5 Totals

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