NFL Week 5 Betting Recap - Only Vikings Remain Undefeated

Minnesota Vikings players gathered around

Monday, October 10, 2016 9:53 PM GMT

Week 5 of the NFL 2016 is almost in the books, just MNF remains to be decided. How does the week stack up so far in terms of bettors vs. bookmakers, you may be wondering?  Let’s find out in this NFL betting recap.

Week 5 NFL betting Recap

After the consensus bet Arizona Cardinals rebounded in Thursday Night football to give the public a good start on week 5 NFL picks, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots live up to their billing as the double-digit road faves. Indeed, they were one of the week’s top consensus bets. Others the public believed in and were rewarded by included the Steelers, Vikings and Titans, to name a few. We break down all the action which saw On the day, favourites go 7-5-1 against the spread with four underdogs winning outright on Sunday and the totals going 7-6-0 with just MNF to conclude the week.

 

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Cardinals 33 vs. Niners 21
Opening Line: Cards -2.5, O/U 43.5
Closing Line: Cards -3.5 O/U 42
Closing Consensus Betting: Cards 57.93%
In the battle of the 1-3 SU teams, the Cards were clearly getting the love from the public with 57.93% of tickets taken and 63.13% of the money as well. Clearly, the betting was one-sided – which is an indication both public and sharps were leaning towards Arizona, a reaction inevitably prompting books to move the Cards from an opening -2.5 to a closing -3.5 on the NFL odds board. Consider the Cards were starting backup Drew Stanton the considerable lean towards Arizona in the market is a bit surprising. Then again, it just goes to show how little the public believes in Blaine Gabbert and the Niners. Fortunately, that won’t be a consideration in week 6 NFL betting as reports are Colin Kaepernick might be set to start.

 

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Patriots 33 vs. Browns 13
Opening Line: Patriots -10 O/U 47
Closing Line: Patriots -10, O/U 48
Closing Consensus Betting: Patriots 62.33%
Tom Brady returned and it was a day to remember as the Patriots steamrolled the Browns 33-13. It could have been worse on the scoreboard had the Patriots not missed a field goal attempt and converted on a few more red zone opportunities. In any event, they did enough to cover the hefty -10 spread trading across sports betting markets, the only double-digit spread to close in week 5. That the Patriots were laying so many points on the road clearly didn’t deter the public. The Patriots were the top consensus bet across sports betting platforms.

 

Jets 13 vs. Steelers 31
Opening Line: Steelers -6, O/U 48
Closing Line: Steelers -9.5, O/U 50
Closing Consensus Betting: Steelers 54.96%
The Steelers emerged as the top consensus bet in week 5, so much so that they were bet up to -9.5 from an opening -6. Big Ben didn’t disappoint as he put in another big performance going 34-47, 380 YDS, 4 TD. To put it into perspective, the veteran quarterback has 9 TDs in the last two games and 15 TDs on the season. If the Steelers were a popular bet in week 5, with such heady numbers it’s quite likely the Steelers will be a popular bet amongst NFL bettors for week 6 NFL picks against the hopeless Dolphins.

 

Eagles 23 vs. Lions 24
Opening Line: Lions -2.5, O/U 46
Closing Line: Eagles -3.5, O/U 46
Closing Consensus Betting: Eagles 59.76%
The clash between the Lions and Eagles served up one of the bigger surprise on the NFL betting board. Books went to press with the Lions at -2.5 but neither the public nor the sharps were having any of it, betting up the Eagles (who were coming off a bye) all the way up from +2.5 to -3.5.  So eager was the public to bet this game they not only bet up the Eagles but flipped the market completely (from road underdogs to road faves). As the score indicates, it was quite close when all was said and done and to be fair the public were somewhat unfortunate the decision didn’t go their way. Eagles did have opportunities in the red zone but failed to convert those and opted to settle on field goals instead. The Lions hung in there by the skin of their teeth.

 

Bears 23 vs. Colts 29
Opening Line: Colts -5, O/U 47.5
Closing Line: Colts -4, O/U 47.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Bears 62.17%
After the Colts’ loss to the Jaguars in week 4 in London, the Bears received a lot of the early action coming down the wire. So the shine came off of the Colts in public betting circles and the decision to forgo a bye week after the London trek probably played a hand in it too. Tale told, it was a pretty close game when all was said and done and both Luck and Hoyer had good games. It really could have gone either way for week 5 NFL picks. It just so happens it reconciled in a favour of the markets.

 

Titans 30 vs. Dolphins 17
Opening Line: Dolphins -4, O/U 44
Closing Line: Dolphins -2.5, O/U 44
Closing Consensus Betting: Titans 61.30%
The battle of 1-3 SU teams saw the Titans emerge as one of the top consensus bets of the week with 61.30% of the tickets taken according to SBR consensus betting reports. Both the public and sharps liked the Titans at the betting window, prompting the NFL betting line eventually to drop down from Dolphins -4 to Dolphins -2.5. Tale told, they were right, The Titans proved not only worthy of the cover but the outright win. They were one of four underdogs to win straight up.

 

Redskins 16 vs. Ravens 10
Opening Line: Ravens -4, O/U 47
Closing Line: Ravens -4, O/U 44.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Ravens 57.09%
The Baltimore Ravens were expected to bounce back in week 5 NFL betting. After all, they were the consensus NFL pick with 57.09% of the tickets taken, right? Well, the sharps liked the Redskins plus the points it seems and that was reflected with 60.05% of the money risked on this game going towards the Redskins. In a battle between public and sharps, the sharps won as the Redskins not only covered but also won straight up.

 

Texans 13 vs. Vikings 31
Opening Line: Vikings -6, O/U 39.5
Closing Line: Vikings -6, O/U 39.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Vikings 59.39% 
The Vikings are proving to be one of the most popular teams to bet on in the 2016 NFL season, from week to week they are the choice NFL pick by either the public or sharps or both even. Certainly, they were favoured by both camps in week 5 NFL betting with 59.39% of tickets taken and a whopping 70% of the money risked. They certainly disappoint in a 31-13 decimation of the Texans, a side that is fast falling out of favour amongst bettors particularly when on the road.

 

Falcons 23 vs. Broncos 16
Opening Line: Broncos -7, O/U 47
Closing Line: Broncos -4, O/U 44.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Broncos 55.74% (68.27%)
Talk about a surprise in week 5 NFL betting that few saw coming. Indeed, the matchup between the Falcons and Broncos featured one-sided betting. All going towards the hosts – 55.74% of the tickets taken and 68.27% of the money recorded. That said, it was one of the more popular games bet in week 5 in terms of volume and thus despite seemingly one-sided Broncos betting the NFL line did move against Denver (from -7 to -4). This reverse line movement had a lot to do with Falcons money coming down the wire -- even if it only represented less than 32% it was still a good chunk of change. Point is there were sharp bettors that saw some legitimacy in the Falcons taking on a side that was down to an inexperienced rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch and they were proved right.

 

Bengals 14 vs. Cowboys 28
Opening Line: Bengals -1, O/U 45.5
Closing Line: Bengals -2.5, O/U 45.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Bengals 60.17% (75.81% money)
Not surprisingly, the Bengals were amongst the top consensus NFL picks in week 5 with 60.17% of the tickets taken and a whopping 75.81% of the money. By those one-sided stats and the NFL betting line moving from Bengals -1 to Bengals -2.5 we can assume both public and sharp money were responsible for this NFL betting outlook. Tale told, the Cowboys emerged winners 28-14, defying not only the NFL odds but week 5 NFL betting trends too.

 

Bills 30 vs. Rams 19
Opening Line: Rams -1.5, O/U 40
Closing Line: Bills -2.5, O/U 41.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Bills 50.59%
This was a near split (50-50) between two sides the public isn’t entirely sold. Are the Bills or Rams the real deal? However, sharp money was on the Bills with 81.70% of the amount wagered on this game going towards Buffalo according to SBR Consensus polls. So much so that the market moved away from the Rams, who opened as the -1.5 home chalk but closed as the 2.5 home underdogs. Bills came through in a 30-19 win on the road, a week after shutting out the Patriots 13-0 at Gillette Stadium. The Buffalo Bills are now riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak intweek 6 NFL betting.

 

Chargers 31 vs. Raiders 34
Opening Line: Raiders -3.5, O/U 52.5
Closing Line: Raiders -3.5, O/U 51
Closing Consensus Betting: Chargers 52. 72%
Although the Chargers came through as the +3.5 road underdogs to the Raiders, they very nearly pulled off the SU win for their backers too. Another close call for the Raiders that went their way. Another disappointing loss for the Chargers, who have lost games this season in every way imaginable. Surely, they are done losing and it’s only going to be looking up from here onwards? (Too optimistic?).

 

Giants 16 vs. Packers 23
Opening Line: Packers -6.5, O/U 50
Closing Line: Packers -7, O/U 48.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Giants 53.56%
Although the Giants were the top consensus bet (yet again) in public betting circles, the Packers had the sharp money cornered in their camp. The Giants had 53.56% of tickets taken but just 32.14% of the money. The Packers, meanwhile, had 46.44% of the tickets taken but 67.86% of the money. On the heels of the Giants’ loss to the Vikings last week, early money poured into this game on the Packers side of the coin and pushed the line up from -6.5 to -7 where it remained put for the most part. Those that got in early with the Packers at -6.5 cashed. The rest that bought in at Packers -7 had their money refunded (the game resulted in a push).

 

Monday, October 10, 2016

Bucs vs. Panthers
Opening Line:
 Panthers -6, O/U 46
Closing Line: N/A
Closing Consensus Betting: N/A

*Update following MNF

 

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