Are the high-flying Buffalo Bills poised to deliver an upset over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium this weekend when the pair collide under the lights for Week 5 Sunday night football? Find out as we dive into this matchup preview, examine the NFL odds, and deliver our betting verdict for NFL picks.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 08:20 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
Buffalo Bills Rolling
The Buffalo Bills are flying high in the AFC East and AFC Conference behind a 3-1 record on the season, encompassed by a three-game winning streak ahead of Week 5. The Bills absolutely decimated the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans, shutting the pair out by a combined score of 75-0. And interspersed between those two results, the Bills overpowered Washington Football Team in a 43-21 decision.
By the stats, the Bills represent one of the most potent offenses in the league, averaging 33.5 points per game (second-highest scoring in the league). Buffalo ranks sixth overall in total offense, 12th in passing offense with 258.8 yards per game, and fifth in rushing with 145.3 yards per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills rank first in the league with 216.8 yards allowed. They’re first against the pass with 148.8 yards per game and fourth against the rush with 68 yards per game. Finally, they’re the stingiest defense with only 11 points allowed per game.
On the face of it, these are quite heady numbers indeed. The kind one would expect of an elite powerhouse and a Super Bowl 56 contender – which, admittedly, the Bills are according to the NFL odds. And have been since before the start of the season, thanks to their AFC Championship appearance last season (l. to Kansas City Chiefs).
It’s because of all of the above, there’s a buzz about this game across online sports betting sites. A feeling of inevitability and destiny as the Bills look at an increased probability to deliver the upset over the Chiefs. Bettors are certainly buying into the narrative.
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills. Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images/AFP.
However, if one was to knit pick here, then these Bills' stats must come with a caveat -- and that is the level of competition is found wanting.
The teams the Bills have faced in their first four games are nowhere nearly competitive enough or good enough to turn these stats into anything more than a representation of a massive gap in quality, talent, and skill. The product of a perceived heavyweight beating down on inferior competition.
The Miami Dolphins and Washington Football Team began the season with modest expectations, while the Houston Texans were projected to be one of the worst teams in 2021. In a strange twist of events, all three outfits lost their starting quarterbacks during or before facing the Bills. So, in essence, not only have the Bills faced an inferior product, but they’ve also faced questionable quarterbacks.
Is it any wonder, therefore, that the Bills defense leads the league? Or that the offense is doing so well? Put simply, this team is yet to be tested and bettors are yet to discover what Buffalo is really made of.
Kansas City Chiefs Right the Ship
So, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t off to their customary flying start. Is it the be-all and end-all for the Chiefs?
Yes, they’ve experienced a couple of hiccups along the way and, as a result, they’ve slipped to a 2-2 record on the season and fallen into the AFC West cellar. It’s strange to see the Chiefs propping up the division. No doubt about it.
But one has to consider that a team of their caliber, experience, and championship pedigree can find a way back to the top. It’s early enough in the season for them to do so, too.
The Kansas City Chiefs huddle against the Philadelphia Eagles. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP.
Besides, consider Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t get off to a hot start last season either, and midway through, critics were gleefully writing Tom Brady’s and the Buccaneers’ obituary. Tale told, they emerged as the Super Bowl 55 champions.
Heck, the Chiefs had a couple of wobbles during their Super Bowl-winning year too, losing back-to-back games to the Colts and Texans midway through the 2019 campaign. They got things going at the right time, just before the playoffs, and they never looked back.
In any event, upon examining the Chiefs’ record so far, it’s clear that they’ve faced some of the league’s best teams in the Baltimore Ravens (Week 2) and the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 3). There’s no shame in losing to quality opposition.
Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert are amongst the NextGen stars of the league, so of course, these quarterbacks are going to shred defenses and make them look bad.
On the other hand, Mahomes and the offense faced equally elite defenses in both those games, and yet, the defeats that ensued were close and decided by a handful of points. That only underscores just how potent the Chiefs offense still is. Indeed, they’re averaging just as many points as the Bills are per game, but – and this bears repeating – against better opponents.
Recently, the Chiefs bounced back into form with an impressive 42-30 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on the road. Mahomes dropped five touchdowns on the Eagles, Tyreek Hill shredded the defense for 186 yards and three touchdowns, and Andy Reid made history by winning his 100th career game with a franchise for the second time in his career.
Predictions and Picks
The Bills appear to be playing better than the Chiefs, and they’re riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak, but how much stock can bettors really put into form and victories that are derived from an uneven playing field. Hardly any, really. It may well all prove to be smoke and mirrors when all is said and done on Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs are the favorites on the NFL odds board for good reason. They’ve had Buffalo’s number in their last two meetings, including the AFC Championship game, and until proven otherwise, there’s no reason to assume they’ve lost that number. The Chiefs will be dialed in and they’ll be motivated to get this win. Perhaps, more so than had they come into this game on an unbeaten streak.
The Bills are the vogue NFL pick right now, prompting the NFL line to shrink from an opening -3.5 to -2.5. Grab the Chiefs at the low number before it goes back up before kick-off. The Chiefs under a field goal at home are a solid bet any day.
NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.