NFL Week 4 TNF Team Prop Picks: Dolphins vs. Bengals

Miami Dolphins cheerleaders in action

Thursday, September 29, 2016 5:49 PM GMT

We crashed and burned for our Monday team props, but even with the two losses, we have still posted a great team props record through three weeks and I am back with two more plays for the Thursday Night Football battle between the Dolphins and Bengals.

 

O/U 4.5 touchdowns
So far through the first few weeks of Thursday Night Football, we have seen some higher scoring performances from at least three of the four teams. We saw the Jets and Bills play to a 37-31 score and even though the Patriots blanked the Texans, I doubt that happens tonight between these two clubs.

We could see a return to the higher scoring Week 2-type game like we saw between Buffalo and New York. Both of these defenses are dealing with some defensive injuries. The Bengals might be without two starting cornerback, Dre Kirkpatrick this week, which is going to hurt their chances of slowing down this Miami passing attack.

On the other side, while the Dolphins have shown the ability play well against the run, they have not shown the ability to slow down opposing passing offenses. If this game turns into a pass-fest, the over for 4 ½ touchdowns is going to fly over.

We already have a total of 46½ that has risen from 43½. A three-point spike in the total shows me that a lot more people think this is going to be a high-scoring game. At only 4½ touchdowns and juice of -135, take the over.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 4 ½ touchdowns (-135) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline 

 

Alternate Total O/U 38 ½
Right now at Bovada, now offering 100% cash bonus, you can get odds of -160 for the over on the alternative total of 38 1/2. While it’s a bit risky with such big juice, I still think the over has a great value between these two teams.

Cincinnati is dealing with defensive problems in their secondary and while the Dolphins’ defense has been good this season, on a short week they are going to give up some points to the Bengals.

All the projection models I follow for this game have the Bengals scoring anywhere from 24 to 27 points in this one, so if that alone happens the over here is a great play for your week 4 Thursday night football picks.

While the Dolphins may have some issues offensively, if they can get on the board early and continue to force the ball to Jarvis Landry, the over at 38½ is still a steal of a value at -160.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 38½ (-160) 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada 
Season Team Props Record: 13-6

 

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