NFL Week 4 Sunday Player Prop Picks

Raiders player Derek Carr celebrating

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, October 2, 2016 2:11 PM GMT

We split a pair of player props for the second straight time on Thursday. We haven’t been able to cash a pair over the last week, but this week I am feeling great about my two NFL picks.

Derek Carr O/U 240.5 passing yards

There comes a time in every handicapper’s lifetime where he projects a certain score or prop and ends up being way off from the line that’s set by the sportsbook. That either means the sportsbooks line is off and it’s about to get crushed, or the handicapper’s handicapping is way off and he is the one about to take a bad beat.

Well, folks, that’s how I feel about Derek Carr’s passing yards total this week. Even though the Raiders are going cross-country, which is never a good thing for most West Coast teams going east and even though the Ravens’ secondary has played well this season, I see Carr needing to throw the ball a lot in this one.

The main reason for this is that his secondary can’t stop anyone and Joe Flacco and this offense are about to put up a good 24 to 27 points on this Raiders defense. That means Carr is going to need to throw the ball a lot. While he may not be too efficient with it and while he may get picked off once or twice, I still think he is going to need to chuck the ball 35 times in this one. He is more likely going to be around the 280 or 290 yards mark by the end of this one, so take the over and add it to your NFL week 4 Picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 240.5 (-125) 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

Carlos Hyde O/U 69.5 rushing yards

One bright spot on the 49ers’ offense this season has been the running of Carlos Hyde. He ranks just outside of the top 10 rushers in the league so far through three weeks and while his 3.9 yards per attempt rating isn’t great through three weeks, he has seen the seventh most attempts (58) through three weeks and he gets to face off against the Cowboys this week.

Dallas’ defense has not been great to start the season. That may be because of all the bodies they are still missing, but either way, the 49ers are going to run the ball in this one. Hyde will see his typical 20 carries, which if that happens, 70 rushing yards or more is definitely in the cards for Hyde.

Dallas has also had the luxury of playing against three poor rushing teams in New York, Chicago, and Washington. Those three teams rank 21st, 30th, and 29th in rushing offense this week, so an offense with a back like Hyde should over perform expectations this week.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 69.5 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada , now offering 100% cash welcome bonus
Season Player Props Record: 14-9-2

 

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