NFL Week 4 Predictions - Top Late Plays

Jay Pryce

Sunday, October 2, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

In need of a pick-me-up after the early games? Here are a couple of NFL picks for the late afternoon kickoffs and beyond, including one in the Sunday night Chiefs-Steelers clash.

 Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid can’t overcome the always-formidable Steelers’ defense at Heinz Field in his career. At both Philly and K.C., his offense averages 13.8 points in four games as visitors, including a 20-12 defeat in his last trip leading the Chiefs in 2014. Mastermind coordinator Dick LeBeau is gone, but his legacy remains. We predict the Chiefs will struggle to put up two touchdowns again.

The big question is whether Pittsburgh’s 34-3 shellacking against the Eagles last Sunday provided some sort of blueprint for other teams to copy in slowing down quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and company. It was Mike Tomlin’s largest loss ever as Steelers head coach.

You can bet K.C. will roll out a similar game plan. It’s a copycat league. Pittsburgh is a veteran team and will adjust accordingly. Poor execution doomed them against the Eagles just as much as poor preparation. Expect a lot better this weekend for your NFL week 4 picks. The Steelers have put up 20 points or more in 16 of their last 17 games as home chalk.


Free NFL Pick: Steelers -3.5
Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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New Orleans Saints vs San Diego Chargers  

Year in and year out, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is one of the best passers against the blitz. He is also incredibly gifted at picking apart a Cover-2 defense. New Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen offers a perfect matchup. His units are blitz-happy, and uses the aforementioned scheme as a base quite often. Couple that with an inexperienced and shallow secondary, and San Diego is looking at 30-plus points on offense no problem.

N.O. quarterback Drew Brees is one of the few signal-callers in the league who can match any opposing offense head-to-head, but something is misfiring with this team on the road recently. Including last season, the Saints average 17.5 points per game away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Brees averages 20.8 points per game as a road dog in a New Orleans uniform lifetime. 

The Chargers are 20-2 SU and 14-8 ATS when home chalk against a defense allowing 25 points or more on a season with Rivers under center. They are winning by an average margin of 14.7 points. The Saints yielded 29.8 points in 2015 and are gifting 32.0 points through three games this year.


Free NFL Pick: Chargers -4
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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