NFL Week 4 Predictions - Seattle Seahawks vs N.Y. Jets Odds & Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 1, 2016 9:18 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016 9:18 PM UTC

The Seattle Seahawks travel 3 time zones east for this game against the New York. The Jets are 1-2 SU, while the Seahawks are 2-1 SU. The divergent results of last week give a major edge to the Jets to be the NFL pick.

Seattle Seahawks vs N.Y. Jets

We enter Week 5 of the 2016 CFB season with enough statistical data to feel comfortable with its relevance. If you believe that the “numbers don’t lie,” you will want to review this week’s Article on this site entitled “CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club.” It will give you a strong base for your statistical handicapping. Remember, that value remains the name of the game. Use your AFP theory, described in an Article 2 weeks ago, to continue to search for contrary plays at best prices. For the football season on this site, selections are now 22-13 ATS (63%) with a plethora of winners for this week.

Seattle has struggled to a 2-1 SU record. Week 1 was a 12-10 escape vs Miami on their strong home field. Week 2, in their only road game, they lost 9-3 to the Rams. At that time, it was widely acknowledged that OL deficiencies and the loss of a dominant runner were major reasons why the Seahawks were averaging only 90 RYPG (compared to their 4-year average in which they have averaged more than 150 RYPG). Angered by that loss, Seattle returned home, where they took advantage of a 49ers team who was still licking their wounds from the Carolina 46-27 defeat the prior Sunday. Though the Seahawks won the yardage battle 418-254, they were outrushed 135-127. QB Wilson was forced to leave that game with a knee injury which compounds his ankle injury in the second game of the season. Behind a shaky OL, any lack of mobility would be critical. Right now, the Seahawks are living on their defense, which is #1 in the league allowing just 12/250.

That’s a bad omen for the Jets, who managed just 3 points last week in a turnover plagued 24-3 loss at KC. Outgaining the Chiefs while outrushing them 117-72 meant little with 8 TOs last week, including 6 INTs by QB Fitzpatrick and a -7 net TO margin. Though the Jets have dropped to 1-2 SU ATS, a closer inspection finds that much like the last 3 seasons when they have outrushed foes by an average of 131-88, the Fly Boys are again controlling the line of scrimmage, outrushing the opposition 131/4.5 to 72/3.3, the 2nd biggest margin in the NFL. 

Knowing that the Jets are 8-3 ATS as home dog the last 3 seasons and that under 2nd year HC Bowles the Jets are 5-1 ATS as the underdog, I can only call the reversal of form and predict a New York Jets outright victory today. I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL week 4 picks with the New York Jets as the Underdog of the day.

Free NFL Picks: Jets +108
Best Line Offered:at 5Dimes

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