NFL Week 4 Predictions: Profit From Home Dogs & Their Records

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 29, 2016 5:54 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 5:54 PM UTC

Week 4 kicks off tonight and after correctly predicting that the Patriots would cover early in the week last time, I am back with a few more inside tips and NFL predictions to help you get a jump on beating the sportsbooks!


How do we play the Steelers with Le’Veon Bell back?
Le’Veon Bell has served his three-game suspension and will be back in action for the Steelers in Week 4 as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs at home. Mike Tomlin has already said that he plans to use a heavy dose of Bell in this game.

The Steelers looked awful last week against the Eagles and while that may have been because of a number of things, the Steelers played badly. Philly is a lot better than most people saw as they have started 3-0, but Pittsburgh should get their act back here on Sunday night and it might lead to a high scoring game.

The total across the board for this one has dropped to 47 at sportsbooks like 5Dimes and the over might be a great play. If the Eagles can drop 34 points on Pittsburgh, the Chiefs should be good for anywhere between the 24 they scored last week and maybe even 27 points. Kansas City might also be getting back Jamaal Charles this week, just adding to the potential for an over play.

The Chiefs’ defense has looked good for two straight weeks, but that was also against the Jets and Texans. Not since Week 1 has the Chiefs faced a great offense and this time it’s on the road. Plus, the Steelers have shown they are vulnerable through the air, so either way one of these teams is getting to 27 or even 30 points. If that happens, it’s likely the over is a good play.


Home Underdogs in Week 4
Week 4 is a week already full of home dogs and there is the possibility that you could create some monster teasers and parlays if we get some “upsets.” There are currently four home dogs this week and there will be a fifth once the Seattle and Jets line comes out.

Plus, there are some home dogs who have performed very well in those spots. Here is a look the five home underdogs this week and their records of being a home underdog since 2003.

As you can see, among the five home dogs this week, the 49ers have the best record as a home dog over the last 13 seasons, while the Jets aren’t far behind.

Chances are that at least two or three of these underdogs are going to cash this week. However, as you can see, the Jaguars, Bucs and Bears are combined 52-80-3 as home underdogs since 2003.

However, the Colts are one of the only teams to consistently make money as a road favorite among their opponents, going 36-21-3 ATS as a road favorite since 2003. So, using all of this, it seems like the best NFL week 4 predictions for these games may be to lay the points with the Colts and take the points with San Francisco this week. 


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