NFL Week 4 Predictions - Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons Odds & Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 1, 2016 9:33 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016 9:33 PM UTC

Each week in this space, I look to isolate a team who will dominate their opposition at the point of attack. This time, I will find that team in Carolina vs. Falcons' game, join me for my NFL picks.

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons  

We enter Week 5 of the 2016 CFB season with enough statistical data to feel comfortable with its relevance.  If you believe that the “numbers don’t lie,” you will want to review this week’s Article on this site entitled “CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club.”  It will give you a strong base for your statistical handicapping.  Remember, that value remains the name of the game.  Use your AFP theory, described in an Article 2 weeks ago, to continue to search for contrary plays at best prices.  For the football season on this site, selections are now 22-13 ATS (63%) with a plethora of winners for this week.

This week, the Atlanta Falcons return home to host divisional rival Carolina following their Monday night date at the New Orleans Superdome. While most of the public swarmed to New Orleans because it was the 10th anniversary of the Saints’ return to the Superdome in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the Falcons calmly controlled the proceedings with a 45-32 victory, in which they outrushed the beleaguered Saints’ defensive line 217-115. The victory lifted the Falcons to 2-1 SU, reminiscent of their 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS start of last season. Since that time, however, Atlanta has struggled on this field with a 1-6 ATS mark. Ironically, Atlanta’s only victory on this field since last October 11th came against these Carolina Panthers last December 27th, snapping Carolina’s 14 consecutive victories to begin the 2015 season. Do you think the Panthers remember? I certainly do.

The Big Cats enter Atlanta with a 1-2 SU ATS record, with losses to definitive playoff contenders Denver 21-20 and Minnesota 22-10, a rare home loss, last week. Before castigating the Panthers for that defeat, consider they outgained Minnesota 306-211 and outrushed the strong ground game of the Vikings 105-58. NFL history, however, shows us that there is only a 7% chance to overcome a -3 net TO differential. The Panthers clearly did not. After 3 games, though 1-2 SU ATS, the Panthers’ statistical profile is still eerily similar to that of last season. They are outrushing foes 146/4.5 to 90/3.4, and allowing just 273 YPG, third best in the league. 

There are lots of factors favoring the Black Cats this week, and they all add up to victory. I invite you to put the NFL betting odds in your favor and join me in my NFL betting pick on the Carolina Panthers as they steamroll the Falcons into submission, bounce back off a loss, and avenge their only regular season defeat of last season.


Free NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 -110
Best Line Offered: at Bookmakers

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