NFL Week 5 Picks - Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins players going over plays

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 8:00 PM GMT

Take the time to read our NFL betting expert’s preview for Sunday’s game between the Titans and Dolphins. His article concludes with an NFL pick supported by a terrific 30-6 ATS betting system.

 Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

Two teams in desperate need of a win square off on Sunday when Miami hosts Tennessee. The opening kickoff at Sun Life Stadium is slated for 1:00 PM ET. These teams met a season ago (10/18/15) in Nashville, and Miami walked away with a 38-10 blowout win as a 3.0-point underdog.

At the time of this writing, NFL betting odds at Bookmaker has Miami as a 3.5-point favorite, and the posted total is 43.0. Bookmaker is presently offering some great cash bonuses. All new customers will receive a 50% cash bonus on a deposit of up to $300, and existing clients are getting 15% reload bonuses.

 

Dolphins Recent ATS Home Futility

Miami has gone a dismal 1-9 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. What’s even more telling is when the Dolphins are +4.0 to -4.0 at home. When falling within that point spread parameter at Sun Life Stadium, they’ve gone 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games, and lost straight up on 5 of those occasions.

 Titans Displaying Road Rage

It’s no secret that Tennessee has struggled mightily on the road in recent years. After all, they’re 4-13 ATS and 3-14 straight up over their last 17 away games. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen from them in their 2 road tilts this season. They came from behind for a 16-15 win in their road opener at Detroit, and did so as a 6.0-point underdog. Then last Sunday, they fell behind 14-0 at Houston, rallied to tie the game at 20-20, and were victimized by a 68-yard punt return for a touchdown late in the 4th quarter. Thus losing 27-20 to the AFC South favorite and division leading Texans. That resiliency can pay huge dividends on Sunday against a mentally fragile and presently disheveled Miami team.

 

NFL ATS Betting Angle

I already touched upon the Titans 7-point loss at Houston this past Sunday, but failed to mention they also didn’t cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Conversely, Miami lost 22-7 at Cincinnati in its previous game, and failed to cover as a 7.5-point underdog. I previously alluded to Miami being a 3.5-point favorite in this contest. The collection of this data leads me to a very successful betting angle, and one that plays a vital role when making my NFL week 5 predictions.

Any away underdog of 2.0 to 4.5, coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 24.0 points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 30-6 ATS (83.3%) ATS since 1991. The underdogs were also 27-9 straight up in those contests as well.

 

Free NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans +3.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker 
NFL Regular Season ATS Record: 8-4 (66.7%)

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