NFL Week 4 Picks - Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Marcus Mariota

David Schwab

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 4:34 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 4:34 PM GMT

This Sunday’s early games in Week 4 of the NFL season features an AFC South showdown between the 2-1 Tennessee Titans and the 1-2 Houston Texans in a 1 p.m. (ET) kickoff on CBS at NRG Stadium. The Titans snapped a straight-up five-game losing streak to their rivals in the final game of the 2016 regular season.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Pointspread: Tennessee -1.5

Total Line: 43.5

 

The Titans have bounced back strong from a Week 1 loss to Oakland as 2.5-point home favorites with back-to-back victories against Jacksonville on the road and Seattle at home both straight-up and against the spread. The total went well OVER this 41-point closing line in last Sunday’s impressive 33-27 victory against the Seahawks as two-point favorites and it has gone OVER in their last two games with a combined 70 points scored.

Marcus Mariota helped to engineer three third-quarter scoring drives last Sunday that turned a two-point deficit into a 30-14 lead heading into the final quarter. He ended the game with 225 yards passing and two touchdown throws. A healthy DeMarco Murray added 115 yards and a score on the ground on 14 carries as part of Tennessee’s 195 rushing yards on the day. This offense is now ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring and fifth in total yards.

Houston was stunned by Jacksonville 29-7 at home in Week 1 as a six-point favorite. After splitting a pair of road games with a win against Cincinnati followed by last week’s 36-33 loss to New England as heavy 13.5-point underdogs, the Texans return home with a SU 8-2 record in their last 10 games at NRG Stadium. They have been able to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games against Tennessee.

To get past the Titans this time around, Houston is going to need a much better effort from a passing game that is ranked 31st in the NFL with an average of 166.7 yards a game. Head coach Bill O’Brian has turned to rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson as his starter and while he has shown some flashes here and there, he is still a work in progress. The bigger concern for the Texans would have to be a defense that has allowed an average of 24.7 points per game in its first three contests. Last week against the Patriots, this unit gave up 378 passing yards and five passing touchdowns including one with just 23 seconds left on the clock that cost Houston the game.

 Tennessee at Houston Game Betting Trends

-The Titans are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games and they have gone 4-21-3 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 10 division games.

-The Texans have failed to cover in four of their last five home games, but they have an 8-3-1 record ATS in their last 12 games against the AFC South. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games played at home.

-Head-to-head in this AFC South tilt, the favorite has covered in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in Houston.

 Tennessee at Houston Free NFL Pick

Whenever you get a matchup between two division foes that know each other extremely well and the home team is getting points, I normally lean that way. This has not been a normal start for Houston which is a cause for concern. The best way to go in this NFL pick is the OVER on the 43.5-point total line at SBR Odds with both teams continuing to score points in bunches this Sunday afternoon.

Free NFL Pick: Over 43.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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