NFL Week 4 Picks - Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 10:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2016 10:33 PM UTC

Not everything has gone right for the Buffalo Bills, but they're an obvious value NFL pick this Sunday afternoon when they meet the Los Angeles Rams at the Coliseum.


It's easy to make fun of Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills. But what if we told you they're the best team in the AFC East? That's according to the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football-Reference; they've got the Bills (2-2 SU and ATS) at +4.1 SRS after four games, ahead of the New England Patriots at +2.2 SRS. Seems fair, considering the Bills beat the Patriots (+3.5 away) 16-0 last week.

Okay, so New England had an injured third-string quarterback in that game. But the Los Angeles Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) will start Case Keenum this Sunday when they host the Bills, beginning at 4:25 p.m. ET, and Keenum might not be any better. As a team, the Rams (–4.5 SRS) certainly haven't played as well as Buffalo, and as 2.5-point home faves on our Week 5 NFL odds board, they're an obvious fade target versus the under-appreciated Bills.

Keenum Was the Case That They Gave Me

We hate to pile on Keenum here at the ranch, and he did have a good game last week against the Arizona Cardinals (–10 at home), securing a 17-13 win with a late fourth-quarter TD drive. But the three games before that were hot garbage. According to Football Outsiders, Keenum was No. 31 out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at –32.8 percent. New England fill-in Jacoby Brissett didn't take enough snaps to qualify for the list, but his DVOA was –23.6 percent going into the Bills matchup.

Tyrod Taylor hasn't lit the world on fire, either, but he's outperformed Keenum this year. Taylor checked in at –17.9 percent DVOA (No. 24 overall) heading into Week 3, and in Week 4, he posted +64 Total DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), ahead of Keenum at +57 DYAR. Taylor is much more likely to at least maintain his level of play; Keenum's ceiling is pretty much what you saw last week in Glendale.

The football nerds crunched the numbers and projected an Elo-based point spread of Los Angeles –1 for Sunday's game, so we're happy to recommend the Bills at +2.5 for your NFL week 5 picks. Shop around, and you might even find a +3, as the Rams are getting the lion's share of the early action – at a very small average bet of $23, according to our expanded consensus report.

Free NFL Pick: Bills +3 (–125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Record: 6-5 ATS, 4-5 Totals

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