NFL Week 4 Pick: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Matthew Jordan

Monday, August 28, 2017 11:28 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 28, 2017 11:28 PM UTC

Neither Oakland nor Denver can much afford a loss on Sunday because the loser will most likely be two games behind the AFC West-leading Chiefs by Monday night. Survivor Pick: Denver.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46.5)

Both these AFC West teams seemed to fall into trap games in Week 3 traveling to East Coast locations to each fall to 2-1. Oakland entered last Sunday night’s game at Washington as the NFL’s highest-scoring club but was inept offensively in a 27-10 loss. The Raiders were 0-for-11 on third down, had seven first downs and 128 total yards – plus three turnovers. That was shocking. The Broncos were also road favorites in Week 3 but played one of those early kickoffs in Buffalo and lost 26-16 despite outgaining the Bills 366-272. Trevor Siemian was picked off twice, and the second one led to Buffalo’s clinching field goal. Essentially, the Bills stacked the box to stop one of the NFL’s top rushing attacks and Siemian couldn’t make Buffalo pay. These teams split last year, each winning at home.

  • Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
  • Broncos are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.
Free NFL Pick: Broncos -2.5Best Line Offered: Bet365

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Both offenses lean on the running game to open up the pass and neither worked in Week 3. The Broncos are just 1-5 dating to last season when Siemian throws at least 40 passes as he did in Buffalo. Denver should have more success this week against a mediocre-at-best Oakland run defense. The Raiders probably aren’t going to be able to run much as Denver’s unit ranks No. 1 against the run in allowing only 59.7 yards and hasn’t surrendered a rushing TD yet. The only other team that hasn’t is Minnesota. That Broncos group totally shut down LeSean McCoy. This matchup features two of the best defensive players in the NFL in Raiders DE Khalil Mack and Broncos OLB Von Miller. Mack won NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2016 and Miller was No. 2. Since the start of the 2015 season, Mack leads the NFL with 28 sacks and Miller is tied for second with 27.5 sacks. Miller has recorded a sack in four of the past five meetings between the teams. Mack had a team-record-tying five sacks in a December 2015 game vs. Denver.

  • Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Raiders last six road games.
Free NFL Pick: Under 46.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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