NFL Week 4 MNF Player Props - Giants vs. Vikings

Vikings player Kyle Rudolph during practice

Monday, October 3, 2016 3:47 PM GMT

We were two Le’Veon Bell receiving yards away from a winning day of player props on Sunday. Today I am back to try and cap off the week right with two final player props picks.

 

Matt Asiata O/U 27.5 rushing and receiving yards

While Jerick McKinnon is expected to get most of the work in the backfield for the Vikings, Matt Asiata should not be forgotten about. The bruising, between the tackles runner, will have a bigger role than what Bovada, listed as an A rated sportsbooks, is projecting him tonight, making him a nice over candidate in what could be easy money at only 27.5 all-purpose yards.

I expect McKinnon to out carry him, but the beauty is that Asiata can play on all three downs. He can run it on first and second and he can come in on third down for a little pass protection, or maybe even a few dump offs.

While the big back isn’t going to make many people miss like McKinnon, he can run over some people and fight for a few extra yards, making him a good play to go over 27.5 rushing and receiving yards.

He has gotten six carries in his last two games, so anywhere from five to eight carries in this one seem likely. He hasn’t had great averages in those two games and while the Giants’ rushing defense has played well so far this season if they are shutting down McKinnon, I expect Asiata to get a few more carries and cash the over as one of our Monday night football prop picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 27.5 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

Kyle Rudolph O/U 4.5 receptions

This play is a bit risky considering Kyle Rudolph has turned into Sam Bradford’s favorite target in the passing game along with Stefon Diggs, but the Giants have actually been pretty good against opposing tight ends.

I talk about using fantasy stats to handicap player props a lot, the Giants have been the 12th best team in yards and production against tight ends this season.

After giving up 10 catches to the Cowboys tight ends in Week 1, the Giants have shut down two very good pass catching tight ends in Coby Fleener and Jordan Reed in two straight weeks. Those are two much better passing attacks that the Vikings possess, so even after a 10 target and seven catch game last week, I see the Giants keying in on Rudolph.

New York will want to force Bradford into longer throws, so taking away the underneath routes might be their main plan of attack other than stopping the run. With that in mind, I see Rudolph only catching four passes in this one.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 4.5 (+115) 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Season Player Props Record: 16-11-2