NFL Week 4: Capper Takes Small Lean on Giants as the Best ATS Pick vs. Bills

Jason Lake

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 4:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 4:20 PM UTC

The Buffalo Bills and New York Giants have each covered two of their three games. But only one of these Empire State teams can be our NFL pick when they meet in Week 4.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 27: 12-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (–1.00 units); 6-9 Total

You gotta love the NFL. First week, the book get crushed. Second week, it's a sharp's paradise. Then everything goes kaput again in Week 3. The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks covered as double-digit faves. The OVER was 9-6 going into Monday's action. Great googly-moogly.

Even the New York Giants managed to win a game. Granted, it was against Washington, but the Giants prevailed 32-31 as 3-point home faves in a matchup that had lots of sharps putting D.C. in their NFL picks. Heck, even we were on Washington here at the ranch. Now the Giants are preparing for a lovely weekend trip upstate to see the autumn leaves – no, wait, they're going to Buffalo to face the Bills this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). Not so lovely. Our NFL odds at press time have Buffalo laying up to 6.5 points, with the early consensus divided about equally.


Fix Yourself, Sammy
The G-Men will have the advantage of longer rest after beating Washington on Thursday Night Football, and they could use it. LB Jon Beason was able to make his first start of the season, but he only played about a third of the game. That workload should rise considerably this week. New York is also expecting WR Victor Cruz to make his season debut against Buffalo.

The Bills are coming off a very impressive 41-14 pasting of the Miami Dolphins (–1 at home), but they suffered a pair of injuries on offense: WR Sammy Watkins is questionable for Week 4 with a “mild” calf strain, and rookie RG John Miller is considered day-to-day with a strained groin. Miller won the starting job in training camp after getting drafted in the third round out of Louisville; Buffalo had the No. 1-ranked rushing offense through two weeks, according to Football Outsiders.


Buffalo Wet Wings
Weather-wise, the long-range forecast calls for a 30-percent chance of rain at kick-off, as part of what looks like a wet weekend in Buffalo. Conditions at Ralph Wilson Stadium could be a bit messy even if the skies are clear on Sunday. Is this going to be one of those smashmouth East Coast games with the running and the defense and all that? Rex Ryan would love it, although he'd love it even more if Miller were available.

After an informal straw poll, we're going to recommend a small bet on the Giants – but hold off on that play for the moment, until more information comes in on Miller's status. Watkins is the obvious headline-grabber here; however, from a betting perspective, it's Miller Time that we're concerned about. Also, the public might be on the Bills here after they got some support in the game against Miami. There might be a +7 on the board by the time Sunday rolls around.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Giants +6.5 at Bookmaker

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