NFL Week 4 Betting - Where The Sharps Are

Tennessee Titans players in action

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 2, 2016 2:40 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016 2:40 PM UTC

How important is four-time Pro Bowler J.J. Watt to the Houston Texans? Enough to make the Tennessee Titans the sharpest football pick on the Week 4 NFL odds board.

This wasn't exactly the way we envisioned it here at the ranch, but as it turned out, J.J. Watt's back injury will indeed prevent him from winning another Defensive Player of the Year award. Watt was able to start the regular season for the Houston Texans after undergoing back surgery, but after three games of abuse, he'll have to go under the knife again. Tough break.

How tough? Check out our expanded consensus reports, and if the numbers are the same as they are at press time, you'll see the Texans getting just nine percent of the action for Sunday's matchup with the Tennessee Titans. That's despite a 54-percent majority of bettors laying wood on Houston. The Titans have by far the largest average bet size on the Week 4 schedule at $528. If that's not a sharp NFL pick, then I'm a mongoose.


Mongoose Season

Well, it was a sharp pick when Houston opened as a 7-point home chalk on our NFL odds board. That might not be the case now that the spread has fallen to 4.5 points. Then again, the Texans (2-1 SU and ATS) are all Watt and no cattle; their offense ranks dead-last of the 32 teams on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders, while their defense ranks No. 8. And that's with LB Brian Cushing missing the last two games with a torn MCL. Miraculously (cough cough), Cushing might be able to play this week after returning to the practice field.

On the other side, you have the Titans (1-2 SU and ATS), who have the No. 20-ranked offense and the No. 14 defense after three games. Marcus Mariota has played at replacement level thus far, making gains in his sophomore campaign – and outperforming Houston QB Brock Osweiler, who has regressed since coming over from the Denver Broncos in the offseason. RB DeMarco Murray (6.0 yards per carry, 17 catches) has been the real star, though, and he should have more room to roam Sunday with Watt on the sidelines.

All in all, we're content to follow the wiseguys and recommend the Titans for a small-to-moderate bet at these prices. There's a +5 or two floating around at press time, so as always, shop smart, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Titans +5
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Record: 5-3 ATS, 4-3 Totals

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